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Official Bucharest’s efforts to increase its influence within the North Atlantic Alliance
The first round of Romania’s presidential elections, held on November 25th, has been completed, and the ruling elite is disheartened. The Social Democratic Party candidate, current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who was expected to win according to forecasts and exit polls, came in third. As a result, he will not advance to the second round scheduled for December 8.
The winner of the first round, with 22.94% of the vote, was independent candidate Călin Georgescu, formerly of the ultra-nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). He will face the opposition Liberal Party candidate Elena Lasconi (19.18%) in the runoff.
As a semi-presidential republic, Romania has a rather complex system of government. The head of state shapes foreign and security policy, serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and oversees the intelligence services. The president is elected to a five-year term, but does not have the sweeping powers of presidents in countries such as Russia or France.
For context, 13 candidates were vying for the presidency this time around. According to the Central Election Commission, about 9.4 million citizens (about 52.4% of eligible voters) participated in the election.
Since the beginning of the Russian Military Operation, Romania has significantly strengthened its position on NATO’s eastern flank. A glance at the map reveals its strategic importance: it borders Ukraine, has access to the Black Sea, and is close to Crimea. In addition, Romania is central to counterbalancing Turkey, extending influence into Moldova (including the breakaway region of Transnistria), and monitoring Serbia’s stance on unrecognized Kosovo. Romania thus serves as a key outpost for potential conflict zones and a strategic position for a possible confrontation with Russia.
In March, Bucharest announced the construction of NATO’s largest base in Europe, surpassing the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Located near the city of Constanța in the commune of Mihail Kogălniceanu, the base is being built on the site of a former Romanian Air Force base. It currently hosts 4,700 troops from the elite U.S. 101st Airborne Division, known as the «Screaming Eagles», on a rotational basis. By 2040, the base is expected to permanently house 10,000 American soldiers and their families, becoming a fully autonomous NATO facility, complete with schools, kindergartens, shops, pharmacies, and a hospital.
Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that the presidential election in the EU’s poorest country has drawn intense attention from politicians on both sides of the Atlantic.
Returning to the first round of voting, the 62-year-old Georgescu emerged victorious despite seemingly defying electoral logic. He had no campaign headquarters and ran his campaign under the slogan «Remake Romania» primarily via TikTok.
«We are strong, we are brave, many people voted and there will be many of us in the second round. We are not in politics, we are making history», Georgescu declared after his first victory. Georgescu, a perennial contender for prime minister in Romania, has yet to secure such a position.
During the election debates, Georgescu strongly criticized Romania’s alignment with NATO and its military assistance to Ukraine. He referred to Ukraine as a «fictitious state» and called the deployment of the U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense system at the Deveselu military base a «diplomatic disgrace». Prior to the Russian special military operation, Georgescu suggested that Romania would benefit from maintaining good relations with China and Russia. At the time, he described President Putin as a patriot who «knows and masters diplomatic aspects and is surrounded by good professionals». As a result, the Romanian media labeled him a «pro-Russian politician».
Elena Lasconi, who will run against Georgescu, has contrasting views — she favors increased defense spending and support for Ukraine. She spent about a quarter-century in journalism, led a liberal opposition party, and has served as mayor of Câmpulung (population just over 37,500) since 2020. Unlike her rival, who has experience in both governmental bodies and international organizations, Lasconi’s resume is less substantial, particularly lacking in foreign policy experience. Commenting on the Ukrainian conflict, for example, she claimed that if she were in Zelensky’s position, she wouldn’t have ceded territory, without explaining how she would have achieved this.
The intrigue surrounding the second round of the presidential election is heightened by the fact that parliamentary elections in Romania are scheduled for this Sunday, December 1. Georgescu, who is a serious contender for victory on December 8, lacks a political force behind him to provide substantial support in parliament. Thus, despite his TikTok-driven campaign, he may end up as a «king without a court».
As for the battle for parliamentary seats, preliminary polls suggest that the Social Democrats could secure 30% of the vote, followed by the nationalist AUR with 21% and Lasconi’s Liberals trailing with 15%.