AP
This means that the political shift to the right in this region of the world is not a foregone conclusion.
Except for the president, «almost nothing changes», noted the Uruguayan weekly Busqueda the day after the presidential elections. Investors called these Uruguayan elections «the most boring in the world». They apparently wanted more scandals, the chainsaw-wielding antics that have accompanied almost all elections in recent years, not just in Latin America.
Within an hour of the polls closing on Sunday, November 24, exit polls showed a clear winner. The electoral commission announced that the candidates of the left-wing «Broad Front» (Frente Amplio) — Yamandú Orsi and Carolina Cosse — had won. The duo of Álvaro Delgado and Valeria Ripoll of the ruling National Party (Partido Nacional), who were backed in the second round by virtually all the right-wing parties of the Republican «Multicolor Coalition», lost.
With more than 98% of the ballots counted, Orsi had 49.8% of the vote to Delgado’s 45.9%. Voter turnout in the country, which has 2.7 million eligible voters, was nearly 90%.
His victory marks the return of the «Broad Front» that governed Uruguay from 2005 to 2020, until the election of President Luis Lacalle Pou of the center-right National Party. During that time, the left legalized abortion, same-sex marriage and marijuana, but failed to solve problems such as unemployment and crime… But the center-right that replaced them did not solve these problems either.
Contrary to the trend of political polarization seen in other countries, Delgado, who lost the election, is conciliatory, calling for unity and the continuation of national dialogue.
Orsi is a moderate who does not plan radical changes and largely agrees with his opponent on reducing child poverty — which, according to the UN, stands at a staggering 25% — and curbing the growth of organized crime in a country long considered one of the safest in Latin America.
Orsi’s victory was the result of what many observers considered a centrist campaign, as both coalitions focused on the same issues: security, jobs, and the fight against corruption.
Moreover, the state of the economy was not the only issue on voters’ minds. In a June poll conducted by the communications firm Nomade, 29 percent of respondents cited «lack of security» as Uruguay’s main problem. This overshadowed the second most popular issue — unemployment — which was chosen by only 15 percent of respondents.
Uruguay’s homicide rate — 11.2 per 100,000 inhabitants — is not among the most critical in Latin America, although it is twice the world average. In 2023, 55% of the 382 murders in Montevideo occurred mainly in the poorest northeastern areas of the capital, partly linked to the growth of drug trafficking.
As part of his campaign platform, Orsi promised to increase the number of police and strengthen Uruguay’s borders, including the installation of additional surveillance cameras.
The left returns to government with a commitment to maintain macroeconomic stability and improve income distribution, giving priority to the situation of the 10% of the population living in poverty. Unemployment is just over 7%, one of the lowest rates in the region, but a significant increase in the number of low-wage workers earning up to 25,000 Uruguayan pesos per month (less than $600) has left almost a third of the population struggling to cover basic expenses other than rent. In addition, more than 10% of Uruguay’s 3.5 million people live outside the country, mainly in Argentina, Spain, and the United States.
The «Broad Front» intends to provide «immediate responses» to the increase in poverty and lack of security, based on «ambitious and transformative solutions». In these two crucial areas, Orsi proposes reforming the social security system and creating a comprehensive system to combat organized crime and drug trafficking.
At the international level, China remains the main partner on which Uruguay’s economic strategy is based. The expected opposition of the new U.S. administration to free trade agreements with China will complicate the situation. Perhaps Orsi, who is skeptical about concluding bilateral trade agreements outside of MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia), will maintain a cautious, restrained approach. His administration will likely prioritize maintaining strong ties with China while respecting Uruguay’s obligations within MERCOSUR and navigating broader global trade uncertainties.
Judging by his pre-election speeches, Orsi is more inclined to strengthen regional ties, both within MERCOSUR and with various groups of countries in the Americas, Europe and Asia.
Uruguay’s new leadership is also expected to strengthen ties with Brazil under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in line with Orsi’s progressive and regionally oriented platform. On the other hand, his government may take a more balanced position toward Argentina’s President Javier Milei, given their serious ideological differences. Moreover, Uruguay has effectively halted the conservative wave that began in the Southern Cone with Javier Milei in Argentina.
Overall, the election results confirm Uruguay’s democratic resilience, underscoring a broad consensus on key policy priorities and a peaceful transfer of power that reflects the country’s deep-rooted political stability.
The campaign largely avoided firm promises to raise taxes or limit spending, relying instead on optimistic economic growth forecasts to generate additional revenues.
Uruguay remains a reliable investment-grade sovereign, while other countries in this group in Latin America are trending toward downgrade. Yamandú Orsi’s market-oriented platform, with a particular focus on social programs, bodes well for Uruguay’s prospects in what could be a more challenging environment for emerging markets in the coming years.
Far from harsh and inflammatory speeches, Orsi insists that his formula for governing the country will be «a national dialogue in which we will find the best solutions for everyone, following our own vision of course, but also listening carefully to what others tell us».
As in most Latin American countries, the transfer of power from one administration to another takes several months. In Uruguay’s case, the inauguration will take place on March 1, 2025, when the newly elected president will take the oath before the newly elected houses of the legislature. The Broad Front has a majority in the Senate (16 out of 30 seats) and a significant minority in the Chamber of Deputies (48 out of 99 seats).
Uruguayan leftists return to power after five years of National Party rule. And this return shows that the political shift to the right in Latin America is not a foregone conclusion.