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All 190 opposition members of parliament voted in favor. The ruling People’s Power Party (PPP), to which the president belongs, did not participate in the vote. Its members walked out when the question of investigating corruption allegations against the president’s wife came up for a vote. According to South Korean media, the parliament building was surrounded by hundreds of thousands of people demanding the president’s resignation.
Sooner or later, the president will have to step down as opposition to him grows. This would be the best outcome for him, although it seems that he either does not understand this or does not want to understand it. On December 6, it was announced that the South Korean police had opened an investigation against Yoon Suk Yeol. And this is just the beginning. He is accused of attempting a coup in connection with his declaration of martial law.
Here’s what happened. On the evening of December 2, the leader of South Korea announced the imposition of martial law, citing the dominance of pro-North Korean forces and a threat to constitutional order. In reality, this was most likely an emotional reaction by the president, driven by an extreme escalation in his conflict with the opposition and the failure of his proposed national budget. From the perspective of a Russian observer, the political crisis may seem sudden, but tensions had been building under the surface. The fact is that the opposition has a parliamentary majority and can pass the laws it wants, but it cannot override a presidential veto. This situation forced both sides to constantly negotiate, which was no easy task. The opposition had already threatened Yoon Suk Yeol with impeachment and the president with martial law. But until now, neither side had legitimate grounds or sufficient public support for such drastic measures. Now the president decided to act first, at his own peril.
Under martial law, authority was temporarily transferred to General Park An Su, Chief of the Army General Staff. He announced the suspension of the South Korean parliament, imposed control over all media, and banned street protests and demonstrations.
The country’s Defense Ministry ordered the army to be on standby for emergencies, and reserve soldiers were called up. Special forces were then sent to the parliament building to prevent lawmakers from entering. However, the lawmakers still managed to sneak in and voted to lift martial law. Later, the government of the Republic of Korea made a similar decision. This was facilitated by the public’s shocked reaction to the president’s actions, which they considered inappropriate.
According to the latest polls, President Yoon Suk Yeol has an approval rating of 25%. The People Power Party (PPP), to which Yoon belongs, is at 32.3% and the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is at 45.2%. Even the leader of the conservative People Power Party, Han Dong Hoon, called the imposition of martial law «wrong». Under Korean law, martial law must be lifted if a majority of lawmakers vote against it. That’s exactly what happened, despite the formal suspension of parliamentary activities. All PPP members present also voted against martial law. Even the mayor of Seoul, Oh Se-hoon, also a conservative, unequivocally condemned the president’s stunt. As a result, martial law lasted just under six hours.
Looking deeper, one can conclude that even the military did not have enough resolve to implement martial law harshly. South Korean society, deeply rooted in democratic traditions, is not ready to return to the era when the country was ruled by military dictatorship. People still remember the brutal military crackdown on dissidents in Gwangju in 1980, when some 200 people were killed. The military, suddenly thrust into power, also recalls the fate of South Korea’s famous dictator Park Chung-hee, who imposed martial law in 1972, dissolved parliament and political parties, suspended the constitution, and was assassinated in 1979.
After the president’s failure, the opposition went on the offensive. On Wednesday, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) demanded Yoon Suk Yeol’s immediate resignation. If he did not, they threatened to initiate impeachment proceedings, which they did. «Yoon’s imposition of martial law is a clear violation of the Constitution», the DP statement said, emphasizing that Yoon did not meet any of the requirements for declaring martial law. «This is a serious act of rebellion and an excellent ground for impeachment. It is clear to the entire nation that President Yoon can no longer govern the country normally. He must resign», said Park Chang Dae, leader of the DP parliamentary group.
It should also be noted that one of the leaders of the South Korean opposition and head of the DP, which has a parliamentary majority, Lee Jae-myung, lost to Yoon Suk Yeol in the last presidential election by less than one percent. According to South Korean political analysts, Lee is a staunch opponent of Yoon. After the December 7 vote, Lee vowed to ensure the president’s impeachment at all costs.
To be fair, while the ruling party unequivocally condemned Yoon Suk Yeol’s actions, it stated that it would not support impeachment. Two hundred votes are needed for impeachment, and the entire opposition voted in favor of it — that’s 190 lawmakers. However, if Yoon doesn’t leave his post under pressure, including from his own party, there is a high probability that about a dozen ruling party lawmakers will switch sides and join the opposition. In any case, the impeachment vote will be repeated. After all, a poll conducted on December 5 showed that 73.6% of South Koreans support the idea of impeachment (and among the youth it’s 86.8%).
Before the parliamentary vote, President Yoon Suk Yeol addressed the nation. He apologized for declaring martial law, said he was willing to take responsibility, and promised not to make such a decision again. Eventually it will happen, as People’s Power Party leader Han Dong Hoon said the president’s resignation is inevitable. He explained his change of stance with new information about the president’s behavior, which he said showed that Yoon «may use power in a dangerous way». It turns out that after declaring martial law, President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered the military’s counterintelligence command to arrest leading politicians, calling them «anti-state forces». It was also revealed that on the night of the declaration of martial law, special forces occupied not only the parliament but also the Central Election Commission. The pretext was the need to investigate suspected electoral fraud. In addition, according to Yonhap News Agency, the military attempted to arrest opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.
Although the December 7 impeachment attempt failed, Yoon’s prospects are bleak. In South Korea’s political tradition, inadequate leaders are dealt with harshly. South Korean presidents often end their political careers on a sad note. Since the turn of the century, one female leader has been impeached and sentenced to 24 years in prison; one former president was sentenced to 17 years; and another committed suicide.
It is believed that the outcome of the snap presidential election that will follow these events is predictable: the opposition Democratic Party will win, and Lee Jae-myung will most likely become president. However, this is unlikely to lead to radical changes in the Republic of Korea’s foreign policy, on which there is a general consensus among the South Korean elite. The country’s leadership will continue to look to the United States. However, with Donald Trump now in the White House, there may be a degree of independence in relations with Russia and North Korea.