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Personal political ambitions may lead the country toward a change in course, and the rivals themselves toward electoral failure.
The years 2024–2025 will be remembered as the most difficult in Bolivia’s history: if the former and current presidents, Evo Morales and Luis Arce, fail to share the pre-election field before the presidential election scheduled for August 17, 2025, they will hand the country over to the United States.
Morales ruled Bolivia for nearly 14 years from 2006 until he was forced to leave the country after the 2019 elections, which were declared fraudulent. The ineffective, pro-U.S. interim government that took power lasted only 11 months and gave way in the 2020 elections to the return of the Movement Toward Socialism (El Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS), led by Luis Arce, Morales’ protégé and the successful former finance minister in his administration.
With Arce’s help, the former president fled first to Mexico and then to Argentina, and thanks again to Arce, he returned to Bolivia and became the MAS candidate in the elections scheduled for August 17, 2025.
But during this time, the current president from the same party, Luis Arce, has also learned to taste the sweetness of power. Now the MAS party has «two candidates», and either through stupidity or internal strife, it risks losing its grip on real power in the country. At stake is Bolivia’s economic development and the well-being of its people. At stake is Bolivia’s true political and socioeconomic independence, for which the possible return of a Trump administration in the coming years does not bode well. It’s unfortunate that the ambitions of these two socialist candidates could hand victory to pro-American right-wing forces. Just like in Germany, but on a local level.
The struggle for power and the escalating conflict between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales within the ruling party have already plunged the country into serious upheaval. Morales called on ministers and ambassadors to resign, lest they become «accomplices to the worst government in history». For Arce, this resulted in neither a mass exodus nor a government crisis.
The same cannot be said about the situation in the country. As a result of this ambitious political confrontation, Bolivia’s economy has begun a rapid decline. Financial imbalances threaten economic security, create obstacles to regional integration, and increase risks to macroeconomic stability. The lack of timely decisions exacerbates the problems, creating uncertainty in the present and concern for the future. The World Bank confirmed in its latest report that it expects Bolivia’s growth to reach only 1.4% in 2024.
A few weeks ago, Bolivia’s Constitutional Court ruled that former president Evo Morales could not run for the presidency again because he had already «served» the maximum number of terms — two. In reality, it was three, the last of which involved fraud, after which he was helped to leave the country. Now he is also accused of having an affair with an underage girl, an accusation that Morales has so far neither confirmed nor denied.
After taking the lead in a movement against the government of his former protégé, Morales demonstrated a tremendous ability to mobilize the peasant masses, but failed to secure the support of the security forces. Now he risks losing his longtime leadership of the party to his own ambitions, which he may be willing to tear apart.
Evo, by the way, was born among coca growers. From these leaves, it is no longer just peasants in clandestine «factories» who produce cocaine paste (supposedly harmless in this initial form), which is then sent to chemical plants in Colombia and some other countries to produce the well-known narcotic cocaine.
Coca is a weed that grows by itself, requires little physical labor, and provides a livelihood for poor farmers. For them, growing coca is easier and more accessible than, say, growing corn or rice. In Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia, peasants have been taught to grow coca for the government, for the guerrillas, and for the narco-mafia. All three forces work together. The peasants end up being the losers.
Back to politics: Morales decided to run for president again. Arce did not like the idea. But as far as one can tell, Arce tried to reason with him — to no avail.
Evo Morales began a bitter rivalry with his former ally for the nomination of their now-divided ruling party and for control of the country’s judicial system. Morales resorted to tried and true methods. In October, his supporters blocked highways, cutting off transportation between Bolivia’s three largest cities. They seized three police stations and three military garrisons, and Morales himself went on a hunger strike.
Who suffered? Hundreds of trucks carrying food, exports, and fuel were stranded. Business guilds suffered losses that Rural Development Minister Yamil Flores estimated at $970 million, an astronomical figure for a poor Third World country.
La Paz and other cities have faced meat shortages and skyrocketing prices, exacerbating an economic crisis that is only hurting ordinary Bolivians. Last week, growers dumped flowers, milk, vegetables and fruit in the streets-products that had rotted because of the blockade. Many of those affected by the blockade are low-income citizens who have traditionally supported Morales.
According to Bolivia’s executive branch, protests by Morales’ supporters have already cost the country $4 billion in 2024, and as of October, inflation stood at 7.26 percent.
The situation is growing more complicated by the day, prompting social, business, political, and religious circles to issue statements calling on MAS leaders to end the infighting and urging the state to clear the roads-not just the literal ones, but the political ones as well.
The power struggle between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales is likely to open the door for the opposition. The standoff between Evo and Lucho (Arce) will give the right wing an opportunity. «The weakening positions of Morales and Arce, along with internal disagreements within the MAS, open the door for liberal and conservative forces to potentially win the 2025 elections after two decades in opposition», write American newspapers and agencies.
Bolivia’s future, and the chances of Arce or Morales, will likely depend on the economy, and even more on help from allies: Russia, China, or the U.S., any of which could act as a lender of last resort. Russia is unlikely to provide such assistance now. China is more likely to guarantee economic development for the benefit of Bolivians. The U.S. can only offer the «Argentine chainsaw» solution.
There’s another option. Speaking to RT, President Luis Arce commented on Bolivia’s new status as a BRICS partner. According to him, the meeting in Kazan «once again confirmed that there is an alternative to what was considered a unipolar world. Now we see that it is possible to form another bloc, another group of countries willing to act differently. In a way that guarantees development for all», Arce stressed.
This has already irritated the United States. The incoming Trump administration, which is about to take over the White House, has found a replacement for Bolivia’s «socialists» and is now waiting for them to «tear each other’s throats out».
The situation was temporarily salvaged by the traditional Bolivian Andean festival of Todos Santos («All Saints») and the approaching Christmas holidays. Demonstrators left the streets because it was time to celebrate Todos Santos with the souls returning to the world of the living to share food with their loved ones. Bolivians set festive tables with delicious food and drink to welcome their ancestors and ask for their prayers and God’s protection.
Then, as God wills!