AP
France’s new prime minister hopes to reconcile all of the country’s major political forces. Otherwise, he will suffer the same fate as his predecessor.
The most accurate way to describe François Bayrou would be as a social democrat, although that exact label doesn’t exist as a political category in France. He is a centrist, the leader of the Democratic Movement (Le Mouvement démocrate or MoDem), and has always favored a «horizontal» rather than a “vertical” power structure.
«He also believes that you can carry out reforms without necessarily becoming popular, and it is hard to be an unpopular reformer. This was clearly evident when François was minister of education», says Patrick Mignola, his ally and vice-president of MoDem.
Nothing seemed to predict his political career. He came from a family of farmers whose land was in the Pyrenees. Suddenly, for unknown reasons, his father fell off the tractor while cutting hay. With no other choice, the future Prime Minister had to take over the farm at the age of 22. But he was not interested in agriculture. By the time he was 30, he was a general councillor in the department, and from there his career took off.
He ran for president three times. The fourth time, against Macron, he decided not to run. Bayrou ranks high in the hierarchy of French politicians. Under the current conditions, it would have been difficult for the president to find another suitable candidate. He needed someone who was acceptable to all political camps — except for the far-left «Unsubmissive France» (La France Insoumise), which wouldn’t have accepted anyone anyway.
The first and most urgent task of the new government is to somehow pass the 2025 budget, although this seems unrealistic. Parliament will soon break for Christmas and return in mid-January, and Bayrou won’t have time to form his cabinet before then. As a result, the National Assembly will have to approve a technical budget, the so-called «special law». This will allow France to continue functioning until a new budget is passed. Taxes will be collected on the basis of the previous year’s provisions, social security will operate under the same system, and so on.
Interestingly, the Socialists, who are part of the New Popular Front, have proposed to Macron what they call a «pact of no-confidence abstention». This pact doesn’t exist on paper, but it is likely to be followed in practice. On the one hand, the prime minister will not invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution (which allows him to pass a law without parliamentary approval), and on the other hand, the parliamentary groups (all except the «disobedient») will refrain from calling for a vote of no confidence. In other words, it’s clear that Bayrou will continue the policies of the previous government, but he must navigate his «Titanic» carefully between the icebergs. Otherwise, his cabinet will not last longer than that of his predecessor. Bayrou’s task is to last 30 months, until the next presidential election.
According to the «pact», for example, the right-wing parties won’t insist on tougher immigration laws, and the left-wing parties won’t push for shorter working hours. This is all meant to keep the country moving forward after a dissolution of parliament that no one really understood, until something more stable is devised.
But even here, things will come to a standstill as soon as the social security budget for 2025 comes up. Michel Barnier applied the infamous Article 49.3 to this budget and immediately faced a vote of no confidence — something that hasn’t happened since 1962, when the government of Pompidou, when he was prime minister, was brought down. The 60 billion euros needed for the 2025 budget won’t fall from the sky, no matter how many prime ministers are installed. Even if Bayrou, a shrewd and adept centrist peacemaker, comes up with half-measures to appease everyone, how will it all work in practice? The day after Bayrou’s appointment, Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating.
Bayrou does not have a majority in parliament. For the moment, as they say today, no one (except the extreme left) intends to table a motion of censure. The president of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), Jordan Bardella, in agreement with Marine Le Pen, announced that their red lines have long been drawn and that they will not take the revolver out of the holster.
Although Marine Le Pen’s group currently «holds the cards» in parliament, Bayrou will continue to rely on the center, from the Republicans to the Socialists. At least, this seems to be the mission set by Macron: to prevent the National Rally from acquiring the status of a «ruling party». Otherwise, Macron’s party might as well say goodbye to the presidency in 2027.
Of course, it will be difficult for Bayrou to maneuver. MEPs are behaving like children: the Greens consider his appointment «a slap in the face to the voters. And anyway, it would be better to bring back Michel Barnier». The Republicans recall that in 2012 he called on his supporters to vote for Hollande instead of Sarkozy. The Socialists warned that if even one of their members accepted a ministerial post, he would have to give up his party card immediately. And so on.
This is going to be a very difficult premiership. Bayrou’s allies say the president had to spend a lot of time convincing him — after all, it’s a «firing squad» position. But the new prime minister was persuaded. In his first speech, he mentioned that he was happy that the inauguration took place on December 13. That date is the birthday of King Henry IV (the one immortalized in the rhyme: «There once was Henry the Fourth, a fine king he was, he loved his wine well, yet was sometimes sober»), and Bayrou once wrote a serious biography of this king. So, as Bayrou believes, the stars have once again aligned.