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Who do the “federal citizens” prefer: the «Chancellor of Peace» or the «Chancellor of War»?
In the middle of last week, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he had submitted a motion of confidence to the President of the Bundestag in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law. The parliamentary debate will take place today, December 16. The expected result is negative. Therefore, early elections will probably not be held in the fall, but rather on February 23.
In recent interviews, Scholz has shown unwavering confidence that he can once again secure the chancellorship. What else can he do? The SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) has confirmed him as its candidate for chancellor, and the campaign is essentially already underway.
«In fact, with every passing minute, hour, day, week, I’m getting more and more enthusiastic about the fight, and I want to ignite it», he insisted.
For now, however, the situation seems to favor his rival, Friedrich Merz, who represents the opposition CDU/CSU bloc. The conservatives are currently polling at 30–32%, while the SPD is polling at 15–17%. Keep in mind that the chancellor in Germany is not directly elected by the people, but by the members of parliament.
The political barometer is increasingly pointing to the formation of another «grand coalition», in which the Social Democrats would be the «junior partner».
But Scholz, an experienced fighter, has raised the stakes considerably. He has declared that he does not intend to serve as vice chancellor if Merz wins and invites the SPD into the governing coalition. Scholz reminded skeptics that in the last election (in 2021) many claimed he had no chance of success, but he defied their predictions and became head of government.
It’s worth noting that Scholz is a textbook bureaucrat. Now is the moment when he really needs to «ignite», otherwise voters will sense his weakness and say goodbye to the party. How events will unfold after the elections is an entirely different tactical matter.
The current leader of the minority government seems to have chosen his campaign strategy. He hopes to score points by portraying himself as the “chancellor of peace”. That is, by avoiding escalation of the Ukrainian crisis and instead steering toward de-escalation.
At the end of November, Scholz held what he described as an “uncomfortable” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and firmly rejected accusations that he did so merely to boost his ratings.
«I think the citizens take this more seriously. They think it’s necessary, and I will continue to do it… because I represent this country in Europe and in the world, and I have to make sure that we act very responsibly when it comes to peace and security», the chancellor stressed, announcing a possible new round of telephone talks with the Russian leader.
Merz, by the way, almost immediately declared that he wouldn’t mind talking to the Kremlin master either. He even threatened to present him with an ultimatum to end the war, but then noticeably softened his rhetoric.
Scholz continued along his chosen path and suddenly showed up in Kiev on December 2. For two and a half years he had refused to go there under various pretexts, unlike his coalition partner Annalena Baerbock (of the Greens), who visited the Ukrainian capital eight (!) times during this period. But now Scholz decided to make the trip. He arrived not with his usual well-worn leather briefcase (which has become something of a meme), but with a huge silver-colored plastic suitcase. German media are still speculating about what the chancellor might have brought with him. In fact, that’s the main topic of discussion in Berlin when it comes to summarizing the results of his visit. The trip produced only a photo op with the «hetman» of the Kiev regime and a confirmation of the previously announced military aid. The Chancellor did not provide long-range missiles, did not lift the ban on strikes deep into Russian territory, and rejected the accelerated NATO membership that Zelensky had hoped for. The main conclusion of the German analysts: Scholz rushed to Kiev to outpace Merz, who had also been invited there by the «overdue» president.
The CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor arrived in the Ukrainian capital a week later (December 9). He promised (if he wins) to deliver Taurus missiles and to pave the way for Ukraine’s entry into NATO. In other words, Merz has clearly positioned himself as a «chancellor of war».
I would like to draw special attention to this: Scholz cleverly borrows from his rival’s voter pool the idea associated with the new US President Donald Trump, who is not in favor of escalating the Ukrainian crisis, but of a peaceful «deal».
Which trend better suits German citizens? Several outcomes are possible. But Scholz has certainly caught a promising wave: most Germans oppose the continuation of the war. As a result, he has quickly begun to close the gap with his rival in the polls. Previously, he had slipped to the bottom of Germany’s top ten politicians. However, the latest polls tell a different story: 22% of respondents would vote for Scholz in a direct election of the chancellor — an increase of seven percentage points since the end of November. Merz would get 30% (down one point). There’s another interesting statistic: when asked who they would prefer as chancellor if they had to choose between the two main candidates, 33% chose Scholz (up six points from before), while only 35% chose the CDU leader (whose support rose by just one point).
After today’s vote of confidence in the Bundestag, the election campaign will officially begin. We can expect many interesting developments. The positions of the main competitors will certainly be adjusted.