Speculation on this topic has captured the world’s media.
First, it was the American television network CBS News that reported, citing some of its own sources, that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not be attending the inauguration of the newly elected U.S. president on January 20 next year. They also informed the public that instead of the Chinese leader, the Chinese ambassador and his spouse would attend the ceremony, and possibly a high-ranking official from Beijing. The TV channel also points out that the participation of ambassadors of countries in the inauguration is «standard practice».
In fact, it’s always been that way. The ceremony does not officially include heads of state. It’s another matter that Trump is no ordinary president. He is a major businessman, a leader who has disregarded traditional conventions and, based on his own experience and the way he conducts politics, acts as if it were a business. And in business, as in politics these days, personal relationships carry special weight.
It seems that Trump, as a triumphant figure in recent American politics who has overcome «fire and water» and demonstrated remarkable heroism and resilience, attaches special importance to the inauguration. This will be a special moment-the culmination of his victory and a starting point for the drastic reforms he intends to undertake immediately after taking office. It would not be surprising if, among the crowd of supporters, Republicans, members of his team, sponsors, friends and acquaintances at the swearing-in ceremony, there are a few leaders with whom Trump has, as the saying goes, «special chemistry». Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, is known to have received a similar informal invitation, though he is reportedly still considering it. Zelensky may also come — how could you refuse the poor guy?
Xi Jinping is a different matter. At first glance, his participation seems fantastic, if not impossible. For one thing, the Chinese adhere strictly to protocol and tradition, and they do not provide for such travel and participation in such large public events. Even if Xi were given a VIP box, a red carpet on the plane’s gangway, and an honor guard. Second, relations with the United States are too important and sensitive a direction of Chinese foreign policy, on which an extraordinary amount depends. Just dropping in unannounced at the event of the main adversary and at the same time crucial partner is out of the question. Incidentally, Xi Jinping did not attend the analogous ceremony for the Russian president, and that meeting took place somewhat later.
«Forcing Xi to travel around the globe would be a major coup for the president-elect», CNN rightly notes, calling such a visit «politically impossible» for the Chinese leader. Coming to Washington for the inauguration would put Xi Jinping in the position of someone «paying homage to Trump and American power», which contradicts his vision of China as a leading global power, the network argues. Xi’s presence would also be «interpreted as an endorsement of the democratic transfer of power».
Reuters, citing Trump’s press secretary Caroline Leavitt, writes that the invitation was indeed no joke, and that she allegedly confirmed this information. The invitation may well have been purely unofficial, not sent through diplomatic channels. But as for the idea that it supposedly surprised Beijing, that’s the TV station puffing itself up, trying to show off its supposed insider knowledge. «Chinese officials, accustomed to strict protocol and acutely aware of the power dynamics in U.S.-China relations, could only guess at Trump’s intentions», the channel notes. Did its Beijing correspondent observe the facial expressions of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi or other senior officials in Beijing? Nothing like that could have happened, and there was no official reaction from the Chinese Foreign Ministry or any other agency, simply because there could not have been.
So what was Trump hoping for when he sent out the invitation? «World leaders line up to meet President Trump because they know he will soon return to power and restore world peace through American power», explained Caroline Leavitt. But it’s impossible to get Xi to stand in such a line — not only because of his status as the leader of a great power, but also because of his character and Chinese traditions.
More likely, this invitation is for domestic consumption. As CNN suggests, it demonstrates «the confidence and ambition of the U.S. president-elect». Perhaps Trump, recalling the warm exchanges with Xi during his first term at Mar-a-Lago and following his team’s suggestion, subconsciously hoped for the impossible — that Xi would suddenly take the risk and come. In this scenario, Trump would have the opportunity to demonstrate his business acumen in politics. After all, he managed to charm North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and force him to make a deal. As we recall, the North Korean leader fulfilled all his promises (suspending missile launches and nuclear weapons development) and was then betrayed by the American side. However, North Korea’s longstanding goal had been direct negotiations with the U.S., and Kim achieved this, learning a valuable lesson that later led him to radically change his approach to the U.S. and North Korea’s nuclear doctrine.
You can’t buy Xi Jinping with such tactics. He’s an experienced politician, a global leader, and the head of an independent power. And it’s not at all certain that Xi will visit the U.S. after the inauguration. It’s quite possible that Trump will be the one to travel to Beijing. We clearly remember the series of visits of American officials to the PRC, including Secretary of State Blinken.
In any case, Beijing will not be in a hurry. Contact between the U.S. and Chinese leaders will take place not only after the new American administration is fully formed, but also after its policy toward China is clarified. At the moment, there is complete confusion in this area. Trump is threatening tariffs that could stifle two-way trade, suggesting a continuation of sanctions pressure. The President-elect’s nominees for Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and the nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Beijing all take generally «hawkish» anti-China positions. At the same time, within Trump’s team, Vice President Vance is jokingly referred to as an agent of Chinese influence. So whose line will prevail?
Most political analysts predict a continuation and intensification of the confrontation that took place during Trump’s first presidential term. By the end of that term, as we recall, relations had deteriorated to an unprecedented level of tension. Trump’s current rhetoric, claiming that China is stealing US jobs and technology, does not bode well either.
Let’s not forget that the previous U.S. administration also pursued a policy of «managed competition» with China, which had many «Trumpian» features.
Nevertheless, the Chinese side continues to advocate reasonable dialogue and reasonable relations. Xi Jinping spoke about this at the APEC summit in Lima in November. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated this position on December 3, urging the new American administration «not to break the line of dialogue» because «dialogue may not solve all problems, but it helps to better understand each other, avoid miscalculation, and advance cooperation». He stated that «the Chinese side’s determination to seek stable, healthy and sustainable development of the China-U.S. relationship remains unchanged, as does its desire to build relations with the U.S. on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutual benefit». At the same time, Xi recalled that China’s stance on «resolutely safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests» also remains unchanged. There is, however, no sign of understanding on the American side.
In a word, there has never been and still is no special trust between the PRC and the U.S., nor between their leaders. Yes, Trump was the only American president to be received in the imperial Forbidden City in Beijing during his official visit. But he did not live up to the trust afterwards. So why should Xi fly across the ocean for Trump’s inauguration?