AP
A conference of France’s top diplomats was held in Paris.
In principle, this format was originally conceived as a congratulatory event for workers in all key sectors of the country’s life. Traditionally, at the beginning of January, the French President meets with representatives of the main functional sectors to wish them well for the New Year. Over time, however, this tradition has evolved — if not into an address to the nation, then at least into a substantive discussion. A meeting with journalists, for example, automatically turns into a press conference, and the congratulations to the diplomatic corps become a forum for discussing foreign policy issues. This time, the year-end review with diplomats was anything but pleasant.
Not only in the last, but in the last two or three years, France has lost considerable prestige. First and foremost, various African nations have asked — or are asking — France to leave. Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and perhaps soon Senegal. For these countries, France is no longer the “big brother” you can call when a new junta surrounds your presidential palace. Now they dial the international code +7.
France has always been a serious player in the Middle East. Yes, together with the United States, it once helped to bring peace to Lebanon. Yes, in the first days of the new year, France’s foreign minister was immediately dispatched to Syria — along with Germany’s — to stake out an area that will become a strategic playing field for future French diplomatic efforts.
«We should be proud that we did not give in to Assad’s calls for leniency and that we intend to contribute in the future to the creation of a sovereign Syria, free and respected by all ethnic, confessional and political groups», the French president declared.
Once again, yes: In Iran, Macron managed to join forces with the U.S. to (once upon a time) pressure the ayatollah regime into broader negotiations over its nuclear program.
All this is true. But now, according to what Your Excellencies (as ambassadors are usually addressed) have said, new regimes, unencumbered by old complexes, are planning to ask the questions differently. Recently, Europe has focused more on peacekeeping. But in the Sahel, as the French see it, they were protecting the population from jihadists, while the new authorities were telling them to pack up and go home.
«They forgot to say merci», the president lamented. «Oh well, that will come in time».
What do Macron’s diplomats accuse him of? That France is no longer heard in the world. At least not as clearly as before. In Lebanon, for example, after the port explosion in 2020, Macron made a lot of promises, but in the end delivered practically nothing.
In Israel, nobody understood anything. Immediately after October 7, 2023, he proposed the creation of an anti-Hamas coalition, but a year later he imposed an arms embargo on Israel — two days before the anniversary.
Relations with Algeria — an important part of modern French history — have completely deteriorated. Macron has openly declared a shift in his position in favor of Morocco on the question of the sovereignty of Western Sahara.
During the conference itself, a remarkable diplomatic incident unfolded before the astonished ambassadors. The French had arrested an Algerian influencer (although his audience reaches only 138,000 people). He lives in France and openly does what you’d expect on his blog — spreads anti-French sentiments. But this could no longer be tolerated; the evidence was there. The blogger was sentenced and deported to his home country. But the Algerian authorities simply sent him back! «Deal with him yourself, we don’t need him here».
«Algeria just wants to humiliate France», says Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau. “This person has a valid biometric passport, and according to the Chicago Convention, responsibility for him lies with the country that issued the passport, which is Algeria. But they are sending him back without any explanation».
When has this ever happened before? Who once raised a voice from across the sea? Why are your feet on our table? It’s all clear enough now.
For about two months, there have been calls in France to denounce the 1968 treaty with Algeria. In fact, there are two treaties. One is the Évian Accords of 1962, replaced by the 1968 Treaty, which gives Algerians a special status in France, up to and including the right to permanent residence and eventually citizenship. At present, this is not a full-blown debate, but rather a way of testing the waters to see if the Élysée Palace would be open to such a move. Most likely, Algeria’s brazen actions should be seen in this context.
France’s top diplomats, gathered for the president’s New Year greetings, highlighted the dual nature of their president’s policies. On the one hand it is ‘deterrence’, on the other hand it is ‘indecisiveness’. According to the ambassadors, both aspects point to France’s inability (or unwillingness) to take a leading role in international affairs.
At this point, the ambassadors moved on to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Throughout the first year of the conflict, Macron shuttled back and forth to the Kremlin as if it were his workplace. Nothing came of it, although he did score a few peacekeeping points in Eastern European countries. Behind the scenes at the conference, the idea was floated that the French president believes: «We have our nuclear bomb, so I’ll negotiate everything».
Everything turned out differently. The French have cut their military budget so deeply that their partners now view them with suspicion, including with regard to their nuclear capabilities. On top of that, the president has created domestic turmoil by dissolving parliament — resulting in a crisis with no clear end in sight, and no one can predict what will become of the country. Second, France still doesn’t have a budget, and no one can say whether it will anytime soon. Third, with less than half of his term remaining, the president is a «lame duck».
Meanwhile, Trump and Starmer are at the beginning of their terms. We expect Germany to have a new chancellor as well. Which of the world’s leaders will now tackle these problems? Even the outgoing US president had planned — and then canceled — his last European visit, which wasn’t to Germany or France, but to Italy. The ambassadors agreed that no one in Europe can outdo Macron. He’s no stronger than Orbán or Meloni.