The North Atlantic Alliance is trying to turn the Baltic region into another hotspot of intense geopolitical confrontation with Russia.
An informal NATO summit was held in Helsinki. Finnish President Alexander Stubb invited the leaders of the Baltic and neighboring countries — Germany, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, and Sweden — as well as top officials from Brussels: Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte and his compatriot Henna Virkkunen, Vice President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Security and Democracy.
As a result of this meeting, two key objectives were formulated for the wider Baltic region: to protect surface and underwater infrastructure, and to counter the so-called Russian «shadow fleet».
«We are determined to deter, detect and prevent any sabotage attempts. Any attacks on our infrastructure will be met with a strong and decisive response», — the joint statement reads.
Our website recently predicted in its article «Cable War in the Baltic» that the West would use accidents involving undersea telecommunications lines to baselessly accuse Russia of targeting critical infrastructure. The strategic course is clear: after Sweden and Finland joined the Alliance, voices in Warsaw, Helsinki and the capitals of the «Baltic dwarfs» claim that the Baltic Sea has become «an internal NATO basin», which would allow them to «block Russia’s activities in this body of water».
Ahead of the summit, Finnish authorities released new details of the investigation into the tanker Eagle S, which was detained more than two months ago on suspicion of involvement in damaging the Eastlink 2 submarine cable (connecting Finland and Estonia) in the Gulf of Finland.
According to investigators, the tanker damaged the cable with its anchor and dragged it along the seabed for 60 miles (about 97 km). A four-meter-long anchor weighing ten tons was later found near the site. Police believe that the ship, which sailed from St. Petersburg under the flag of the Cook Islands, carried out the sabotage at the behest of Russian special services. Notably, the captain is a Georgian citizen and the rest of the crew are from India and Georgia. Nine of the 24 crew members are under suspicion.
In NATO and EU circles, the Eagle S is considered part of Russia’s so-called «shadow fleet», which is said to be used primarily to trade oil in order to evade Western sanctions. According to a British maritime information service, there are about 460 such tankers, representing up to 15% of the world’s tanker capacity. Other estimates put the number of ships «in Moscow’s service» at around 600. Since last summer, EU countries have imposed sanctions on certain tankers, not all of which fly the Russian flag. Currently, about 80 are on the EU’s blacklist, more than 50 are on Britain’s and 183 are on the US list. Brussels is urgently preparing a 16th package of anti-Russian restrictions to be adopted by the third anniversary of the Special Military Operation. The list of sanctioned ships will be expanded.
«Russia’s use of the so-called ‘shadow fleet’ poses a particular threat to maritime and environmental security in the region and globally. We reserve the right — within the limits of international law — to take action against any vessels suspected of evading sanctions or posing a threat to our security, infrastructure and environment», — the summit participants noted in their joint statement.
A cautious Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that it was necessary to examine the possibilities offered by international maritime law. If they prove insufficient, «then new ones should be created at the EU level and in national legislation».
Meanwhile, Secretary General Rutte did not mince words, announcing the launch of a 90-day patrol mission called Baltic Sentry. It will be directly supervised by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli.
Rutte did not specify the total number of warships involved, offering only a puzzling (and somewhat humorous) comment: «So as not to make the enemy any smarter than they already are».
In reality, it has already been announced that 10 ships — mostly German and Swedish — have begun participating in the operation. There will be a significant increase in the number of reconnaissance aircraft and the use of surface and underwater drones, as well as submarines and satellites.
It was also decided to involve NATO’s regional naval command center, Commander Task Force Baltic, based in Rostock. This center monitors everything that happens in the region around the clock and coordinates allied actions in the Baltic Sea. It is the same structure that recently prompted the Russian Foreign Ministry to summon the German ambassador. Russian Foreign Ministry officials warned that its creation violates the «Two Plus Four» treaty on German reunification, which prohibits the establishment of NATO facilities on the territory of the former GDR. Formally, the center is under the command of the German Navy, but 60 of its officers (one-third of its staff) are on secondment from 11 other NATO member states.
Overall, Germany has been assigned a key role in containing Russia in this region. Its naval capabilities far exceed those of the other participants in Rutte’s initiative: of the 18 NATO frigates operating in these waters, 11 belong to Berlin; and of the 11 submarines, 6 fly the German flag.
Western strategists predict that the Kremlin’s response may be to introduce full military escorts for commercial ships — rather than selective ones — which would drastically increase the likelihood of extremely dangerous incidents.
To add my own perspective, once the Ukrainian crisis is resolved one way or another, the Baltic region will become NATO’s next arena for intense geopolitical confrontation with Russia. Preparations are already well underway.