The Philippine crisis

foto

Flickr

The United States is seeking to deploy intermediate-range missile launchers in the region capable of hitting targets on Chinese territory and in the Taiwan Strait. China is categorically opposed to this

American Typhon missile systems appeared in the Philippines in April 2024 as part of joint exercises called Balikatan (which means «shoulder to shoulder» in Tagalog, the official language of the Philippines). These launchers can fire both conventional and cruise missiles, including those with nuclear warheads, up to 2,500 kilometers. It is the first instance of such weapons being deployed in the region since the end of the Cold War and the withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. In principle, the Americans were supposed to remove these launchers once the military exercises were over, but that did not happen.

It appears that Washington is quietly and under various pretexts seeking to permanently station this highly dangerous weapon on Philippine soil — something that is naturally of great concern to Beijing, as it would change the strategic balance in the region. The situation is very reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the USSR tried to install missile complexes in Cuba that threatened the United States. As we recall, under the threat of nuclear war, Moscow was forced to back down and remove the missiles from the «Island of Freedom». Now Washington is using similar tactics, putting the Philippines in the line of fire to raise the stakes for China.

Because these missiles can travel up to 3,800 kilometers per hour, their flight time to China’s coast is reduced to just tens of minutes. This increases the risk of a surprise attack and the possibility of local or global nuclear war. Here is what Zhang Hanhui, the Chinese ambassador to Russia, has to say on the matter:

«The Typhon intermediate-range missile systems are a form of strategic offensive weapons, and their deployment clearly signals the renewal of the Cold War. The US deployment of these systems in the Asia-Pacific region significantly increases regional security threats and creates serious risks of regional conflict. The US military base on the Philippine island of Luzon is only 400 km from Taiwan. The Typhon batteries stationed there can strike targets in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and economically developed areas of eastern China, including the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas. In addition, such weapons could threaten the security of all of Southeast Asia».

Of course, Beijing has been trying to pressure Manila all along to remove the American strategic weapons from the Philippine islands. As early as last July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is also a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, warned Manila during a meeting with his Philippine counterpart Enrique Manalo not to deploy American missiles. According to Wang, such a move would only provoke confrontation and an arms race that would not serve the interests of the Philippine people. But Beijing’s admonitions had no effect.

In September 2024, Armed Forces of the Philippines Commander General Romeo Brawner Jr. first announced his intention to acquire the Typhon MRC system after a Defense Council meeting at the Philippine Military Academy. At the time, analysts considered such a possibility doubtful. But on December 25 last year, Lt. Gen. Roy Galido, commander of the Philippine Army, stated that «we are planning to acquire the Typhon MRC system because we see its practicality and functionality under our ‘Archipelagic Defense’ concept». («Archipelagic Defense» is a strategy aimed at securing the Philippines’ extensive network of islands and maritime territories).

The general clarified that no funds have been allocated in the 2025 budget for the purchase of these complexes and that it usually takes two years to finalize such a deal. According to military analysts, Galido was indicating that regardless of whether funds are ultimately allocated for the Typhon MRC purchase, the systems already deployed on Philippine territory will remain there for at least another two years.

Experts believe that Washington probably has no real intention of selling Typhon to Manila, given the system’s need for specialized support and maintenance, not to mention the costs involved. Therefore, the United States’ goal is to keep Typhon on Philippine soil under American command for as long as possible, using various pretexts.

On the same day, China reacted sharply to Galido’s statement. The Chinese Embassy in Manila officially called on the Philippines to remove the American Typhon system from its territory as soon as possible. «What this region needs is peace and prosperity, not intermediate-range missiles and confrontation», the embassy statement said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning later commented: «By cooperating with the United States in deploying the Typhon system, the Philippines is jeopardizing its own security and defense capabilities, introducing geopolitical confrontation and the risk of an arms race into the region, and posing a serious threat to regional peace and security. Whose interests are really served by such actions? How can this be called an independent foreign policy? This is a textbook example of harming others as well as oneself».

As early as last year, Rigoberto Tiglao — former presidential chief of staff and presidential spokesman — described the situation this way: «In my worst nightmare, I never imagined that the United States would be able to restore our puppet status in less than two years — the same status we managed to free ourselves from when the Senate expelled American military bases in 1999. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. … is compromising our independence and turning the country into a certified US vassal — more precisely, a squire in the «trilateral alliance» with the United States, Japan and Australia, designed to contain China, a superpower challenging US hegemony. Now we are the ‘Asian Ukraine’».

It is hard to put it more succinctly. Add to this the fact that the Americans have been given permission to use military bases in the Philippines, and that the two countries are linked by a mutual defense treaty, and the Philippines — following in Japan’s footsteps — now faces the threat of being drawn into a global conflict that could erupt if the situation around Taiwan escalates.

China is unlikely to let the Philippines’ actions go unanswered. Initially, Beijing might be expected to halt trade with the Philippines and restrict travel by Chinese citizens to the country. China is the Philippines’ largest trading partner, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s foreign trade — twice as much as the United States. Meanwhile, the Philippines accounts for only 2% of China’s trade turnover, meaning the Chinese are unlikely to feel the loss of this market. «To provoke a superpower in our region is madness. Our Asian neighbors are laughing at our folly, happy that the trade and investment that China would have brought here will now flow to them», says Rigoberto Tiglao.

As for what the United States is doing in the Philippines, it is a prime example of America’s provocative, militaristic behavior around the world — behavior that disregards the interests of other nations and undermines international security. One can only imagine Washington’s hysterical reaction to any hypothetical possibility of another power, such as Russia or China, deploying similar weapons near U.S. borders. This is essentially how American-style «democracy» works, based on the principle of «might makes right».