AP
On the situation in the triangle of super-economies and superpowers
US President Trump’s recent statements on China (and Russia as well) are contradictory and, it may seem, inconsistent. After threatening to impose comprehensive sanctions, he suddenly switched to conciliatory remarks about strengthening cooperation. It’s as if the White House’s occupant is trying to reshuffle the cards in a complicated game whose main goal, as he says, is to «make America great again». Or he is trying to confuse his negotiating partners, i.e. the counterparts to the future deals Trump wants to strike around the world.
But let’s look at the events. For the first time ever, a high-ranking Chinese official — Vice President of the People’s Republic of China Han Zheng — attended the inauguration of a newly elected U.S. president. He also attended as a special representative of the Chinese leader, while the original invitation went to Xi Jinping himself. It’s unusual for the U.S. to invite foreign leaders to such domestic events, so this was quite a departure from tradition.
During a meeting with Vice President-elect James David Vance in Washington, Han Zheng said that both sides are currently doing their utmost to achieve their respective development goals and aspirations. Despite differences and frictions between the PRC and the U.S., they have enormous common interests and areas of cooperation, and both sides can strengthen dialogue and consultation in these areas. «China and the United States are great countries, and the Chinese and American peoples are great peoples», the Chinese guest assured Vance.
J. D. Vance, for his part, noted that China is playing an increasingly important role in international affairs and that the U.S. is committed to building strong and productive relations with China, enhancing dialogue and cooperation on international and regional issues, and jointly promoting peace and stability around the world.
In addition, there was news that Trump plans to visit China within the first 100 days of his inauguration. Whether this will be his first foreign trip as the new occupant of the White House will probably depend on Beijing. But it is clear that he will go there before he goes to Moscow.
If we rewind a bit, we must recall the telephone conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping on the eve of the inauguration — an exchange initiated, by the way, by the American side.
According to the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Xi Jinping expressed confidence that he and his American counterpart «attach great importance to their mutual engagement, look forward to a good start in China-U.S. relations after the new U.S. president takes office, and strive to make more meaningful progress in China-U.S. relations from this new starting point».
«According to the Chinese leader, China and the United States share broad common interests and great potential for cooperation; they can be partners and friends, achieve common success and jointly realize prosperity for the benefit of both nations and the world as a whole», Xinhua quoted the conversation as saying. «China and the U.S. are two big countries with different national conditions, so it’s difficult to avoid certain disagreements. The key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns while seeking appropriate ways to solve problems», Xi stressed.
It seems that Taiwan and the sanctions stick are the main, if not the only, issues in Sino-U.S. relations. Xi warned that the Taiwan issue involves China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and urged Trump to tread carefully. «The essence of China-U.S. trade and economic relations is mutual benefit and a win-win scenario; confrontation and conflict should not be an option for our two countries», Xi said. In other words, «Let’s trade, not fight».
If we are to believe Xinhua (and there is no reason not to), Trump said that he «values his excellent relationship with Xi Jinping and intends to continue dialogue and communication, and hopes to meet with the Chinese leader as soon as possible». The U.S. president-elect added that the United States and China are «the most important countries in the modern world», and that they should maintain a long-term friendship and jointly safeguard world peace.
In addition, «Xi Jinping and D. Trump exchanged views on major international and regional issues of mutual concern, such as the crisis in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict», Xinhua reports.
And this is where Russia inevitably comes to the table, because without it you can’t solve the Ukrainian crisis. But before discussing Russia’s role, it’s worth noting that immediately after taking office, Trump postponed for 75 days the previous administration’s decision to block the Chinese social network TikTok in the United States, giving it time to sell 50% of its shares and become an American company. At the same time, Trump surely knew that the Chinese would refuse to comply with American demands, believing that such important Chinese companies cannot fall under foreign control. After all, life doesn’t begin and end with TikTok — there are other platforms, such as Xiaohongshu, which has recently seen a surge in American users. In general, though, the conditions for a U.S.-China «reset» are now quite favorable.
It’s no coincidence that the lavish American inauguration was immediately followed by a virtual meeting between the Russian president and the chairman of the People’s Republic of China.
Under these circumstances, it’s important to maintain a high level of trust and understand what concessions each partner in a strategic relationship might be willing to make to a third party. As the saying goes, friendship is one thing, but money is quite another. Or to put it another way, friendship doesn’t put food on the table. Moreover, China takes a pragmatic approach based on its national and commercial interests.
Following these simple principles, China has not banned its companies from trading with Russia, and Russia receives a significant (though not ideal) amount of money from China in exchange for its energy resources. There is close political coordination between Beijing and Moscow on the international stage. China is virtually the only country that has tried to help resolve the conflict in Ukraine diplomatically. The shuttle diplomacy of Ambassador and Special Envoy Li Hui has not yielded the desired result, but it has been useful.
In the West, including the United States, many believe that China is helping Russia in its conflict with Ukraine and the West. China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, Geng Shuang, responded effectively to these accusations last week. Since Russian media paid little attention to his strong statement, it’s worth summarizing what Ambassador Geng said, as it helps clarify China’s position. Here’s what he said:
«The U.S. position boils down to three points: China is supplying Russia with weapons; China is providing political cover for Russia; and without China’s support, the war would have ended long ago. These three statements are complete and blatant lies.
First, if China were really supplying Russia with weapons, the situation on the battlefield would not be what it is today. Second, if China were really providing political cover for Russia, we would not be publicly emphasizing our respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations and our commitment to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. Third, if China really did not want the war to end as soon as possible, we would not have sent special representatives on multiple shuttle diplomacy missions.
In reality, from the very beginning of the war in Ukraine, the U.S. has seized the opportunity to advance its own geostrategic goals and serve its own interests. First, the U.S. simply wants to weaken and defeat Russia through this war, thereby dominating Europe’s security architecture and further expanding its influence in Europe. Second, the U.S. wants to sow division and confrontation in order to suppress and isolate China, which it regards as a strategic rival. Third, the U.S. wants to use the war to create a positive image for itself and deflect negative international assessments of its failures in the Middle East. The United States not only refuses to acknowledge its primary responsibility for initiating and perpetuating the war, but also attacks and «smears» China».
If you read carefully, you can see that China has clear principles in international affairs — principles that are worth respecting, even if they are not always convenient for Russia.
Furthermore: «China’s position on the Ukraine issue is consistent and very clear. It focuses on promoting peace negotiations and a political solution. At the beginning of the conflict, China proposed to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, adhere to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, take seriously the legitimate security concerns of all states, and make every effort to promote a peaceful settlement of the crisis».
That is, China supports territorial integrity — but also a comprehensive, indivisible security arrangement for all. This is in line with what Russia demanded of the West before launching its Special Military Operation.
All this must be taken into account now, as conditions have changed somewhat with Trump’s arrival. The American president is threatening to use China (which benefits from Russian energy resources and exports to Russia) to force Russia to make peace. But it’s important to realize that Trump’s wish list is not entirely in line with China’s own interests. Beijing may make pragmatic concessions, but it is not willing to abandon its principles, even for considerable gain. Moreover, the major contradiction of our time is the competition for global leadership between the U.S. and China, which the American president openly acknowledges. We must watch carefully how these partners behave.
For the time being, the focus is on trade agreements, so different outcomes are possible. However, we should not forget the military pressure the U.S. is exerting on China. Not long ago, the Pentagon deployed potentially nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles to the Philippines, putting China’s most developed regions within range — and creating entirely new security threats for Beijing. It’s unclear how China will respond, given that its strategic nuclear potential is ten times smaller than America’s. Whether Trump will use this argument in «trade negotiations» and issue ultimatums remains to be seen. But in such a hypothetical scenario, China may have only one real ally — Russia. We should value that more than any short-term deals. There are two major economies in the world — the United States and China. But there are also two superpowers capable of destroying the planet — the U.S. and Russia.
Meanwhile, judging by the excessive coverage of American affairs in the Russian media, it seems that officials and journalists are once again preparing to exchange their yuan for their beloved dollars and euros. (For comparison, China’s main newspaper, the People’s Daily, mentioned Trump’s inauguration only in a tiny note on page sixteen.) Having turned so abruptly east, many are now looking back west. In the capital, far from the explosions of American shells and missiles killing Russian soldiers, people are already dreaming of Schengen visas and green cards, forgetting about Western Russophobia, the seizure of Russian assets, and other hostile Western actions. Both Chinese friends and potential American partners at the negotiating table see this.
But we shouldn’t, as we sometimes do, idolize the West, which is at war with Russia, or go crazy when it comes to friendship with China. While maintaining its strategic partnership with the PRC, Russia must not ignore its own interests in negotiations with Western partners. And if we do decide to turn to the West, we shouldn’t do a complete about-face. It is important to follow its own path, guided by its own interests, learning from its mistakes and strengthening its own country.