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Friedrich Merz, leader of the leading conservative CDU/CSU bloc, announced his conflicting priorities ahead of the snap federal elections.
One month before the early parliamentary elections (scheduled for February 23), Friedrich Merz gave a keynote speech. Instead of the Adenauer Foundation, which is closely associated with his party, he chose the more neutral Körber Foundation, a platform for discussing current international and political issues. In other words, the top conservative, who is the CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor and is riding high in the polls with a stable support of around 30–31%, deliberately aimed to reach a broader audience. His speech lasted 30 minutes.
Let us leave aside the pressing domestic issues (economic downturn, migration), which were also touched upon, and focus on his view of the situation in and around Ukraine — especially since he devoted considerable attention to it as the third anniversary of the start of the Special Military Operation approaches.
He began by acknowledging that after the fall of the Iron Curtain, Europe’s security architecture ceased to exist and that «the geographically largest country in the world (i.e., Russia) poses a direct threat». According to him, Moscow does not intend to change its approach, and the Kremlin’s ambitions extend not only to Ukraine, but also to «the entire territory of the former USSR». According to Merz, in a few years “Russia will be able to challenge NATO with conventional (non-nuclear) weapons».
Merz believes that what is unfolding is a «break of an era». Not just a «change of era», as incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) claims, but an actual «rupture», i.e., a violent action. He sees the crisis in Ukraine as «the beginning of a new systemic conflict between liberal democracies and illiberal autocracies». Russia and China (first and foremost), together with Iran and North Korea, have formed what he calls an «axis of autocracies», which openly seeks to challenge the free world.
If he wins the election, Merz does not intend to make Germany «great again» in the American style. Instead, he has chosen a different slogan, promising that under his leadership, «Germany will once again be a reliable partner».
He wants to strengthen the defense capabilities of both Germany and the European Union, restore the country’s weakened ability to act in foreign policy matters, and establish a National Security Council (modeled on the U.S.) tasked with developing a new national security strategy. One of Merz’s most important and immediate priorities would be to «end Russia’s war against Kiev».
«For Ukraine, I think the first answer is that it must win this war», says the conservative leader. In his view, what does victory look like? Ukraine must restore its territorial integrity, elect a democratically legitimate government, maintain and strengthen its sovereignty, and have full freedom to choose its own economic and military alliances. It is noteworthy that in this context the potential chancellor did not mention Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
It is worth paying special attention to the wording he used. At the beginning of December last year, Merz articulated his position as follows: «Russia must lose». Currently, however, he has shifted to a different formulation: «Russia must no longer see any chance of successfully continuing this war militarily».
A similar change in his attitude has occurred with regard to the German TAURUS cruise missiles. Until recently, he was adamant about transferring them to the Kiev regime. Now his tone is more moderate. According to Merz, this step should be coordinated with partners, first and foremost with the United States. The CDU leader noted abstrusely: «If European countries had only one type of cruise missile instead of several, the decision would be much easier. France and Great Britain are supplying their missiles to Kiev, while Germany is not». In short, think what you will.
Merz also could not avoid mentioning Donald Trump’s comeback. It’s worth noting that Merz is not among Trump’s loyal friends or admirers, even though he once headed the German-American nonprofit organization Atlantik-Brücke. He has generally been closer to the Democrats. In his speech, Merz advised Europeans not to stare at Trump «like rabbits at a snake». Instead, they should roll up their sleeves and get to work: increasing NATO contributions and strengthening defense capabilities. But how to do that when German spending this year will only reach the 2% of GDP mark (if it does at all) while the occupant of the Oval Office demands 5%?
Merz believes that Germany must «pragmatically develop a partnership with the United States, free of romantic notions and guided by a clear view of its own interests», as well as «without mutual moralizing». Will that work?
Judging by the excerpts from his speech, I must admit that I’m amazed at the confusion in the mind of a politician who in all likelihood will soon lead a country that until recently was the «locomotive» of the European Union. How can one go to peace talks with such a platform? At the end of last fall, he wanted to give Putin an «ultimatum» over Ukraine, but now he’s quietly backtracking and contradicting himself. What else could happen in the time remaining before the early elections and later, when heated debates on the formation of a government coalition will begin? It will be interesting to watch his expected transformation from an uncompromising hawk to a moderate predator.