AP
Brussels has extended anti-Russian sanctions for another six months, but this time things did not go as smoothly as usual
On January 27, the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels agreed to extend the anti-Russian sanctions for another six months — until July 31. They were due to expire on January 31, and the extension could have been blocked by a veto from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
But Budapest gave in. All that remained was a formality: according to the rules, the decision had to be approved by the permanent representatives of the EU member states. They were called to an extraordinary meeting and voted unanimously. Thus, de jure, the matter was quickly settled.
Literally the day before, the «naughty child», as Orban is known behind the scenes in Brussels, had made a lot of noise. He stated that as of January, Hungary’s total losses from sanctions against Russia had exceeded 19 billion euros. Therefore, during the discussion of the current extension, Budapest decided to «apply the handbrake» (i.e. to veto). The aim was to force the European Union to reconsider the feasibility of further sanctions. However, the Hungarian leader did not rule out changing his position if Ukraine restored the transit of Russian gas, stopped sabotaging the TurkStream infrastructure, and stopped threatening to ban Russian oil supplies to Europe through its territory.
Recall that at the turn of the year, the contract between Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz on the transportation of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory, which had been in effect since 2019, expired. Kiev refused to renew it. Gas on this route had been going directly to Moldova and Slovakia, and then on to Austria, Hungary, and Italy.
To remove the Hungarian roadblock, EU officials used a simple diplomatic maneuver at the summit. At the very beginning of the meeting, the «fiery Estonian», EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, made a special statement. She read a rather general text, the main point of which was that the European Commission «is ready to continue talks with Ukraine on the use of its gas pipeline system, involving Hungary and Slovakia, and also undertakes to seek guarantees from Ukraine to maintain oil pipeline supplies to the EU».
The wording suited Budapest. «Hungary has received the energy security guarantees it demanded», said Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
Incidentally, observers noted that Brussels seemed surprisingly calm about the Hungarian leader’s threats. In off-the-record comments, EU officials suggested that it was important to «distinguish rhetoric from reality». They asserted that there was no need for a «Plan B» to resolve what appeared to be a tense situation. Allegedly, it would be enough to give official Budapest a way to «save face» after making such categorical statements — which, in fact, was achieved with Kallas’ help.
According to the European Commission, stopping Russian gas transit through Ukraine does not affect the energy security of Hungary, Slovakia or the EU as a whole. However, experts note that these countries will lose the discounts that Russia offers them for its gas, as well as the transit fees for pumping it to other states. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, for example, has estimated such losses at 500 million euros a year. Ursula von der Leyen and her colleagues decided that it would be easier to allocate funds for subsidies than to jeopardize the painstaking process of coordinating as many as 15 sanctions packages adopted over the past three years.
As France’s chief diplomat Jean-Noël Barrot noted, the imposed restrictions have already deprived Russia of 400 billion euros that «Putin could have spent on the war». Moreover, if the sanctions were not extended, the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank in the EU, worth more than 200 billion euros, would have to be returned. And Ukraine could otherwise have received steady interest from the reinvestment of these funds in the form of aid.
At the final press conference, Kallas was asked whether Hungary had received a «tangible reward» for withdrawing its protest vote. Barely suppressing a smile, the Estonian offered a brief answer: «For Hungary, this declaration means something. This is what really matters». She described the European Commission’s compromise proposals as «a demonstration of energy solidarity».
Astute European observers have identified another compelling reason for Orban’s climbdown. He made his first comments on the advisability of not renewing EU sanctions against Russia during the heated phase of the US presidential election. Apparently, the Hungarian took Donald Trump at his word that he would resolve the Ukrainian crisis on his first day in office. Orban’s logic was clear: no war, no restrictions. But once his idol returned to the Oval Office, he changed his rhetoric, threatening to tighten sanctions if the Kremlin refused to make a deal on Washington’s terms. So the «sanctions stick» remains firmly in play. Orban, it seems, is keeping his finger to the wind. How will it all turn out? He doesn’t want to miscalculate.
Incidentally, the new U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was invited to the January 27 meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council — the very meeting where the extension of anti-Russian sanctions was one of the main items on the agenda. He did not respond to the invitation. The European Commission called his non-response «a worrying signal». What could that mean? The cautious Orban also took note of his foreign patron’s de facto demarche. The result: a decision not to make any sudden moves for the time being.