The Rwandan armed group M23 has invaded the Democratic Republic of Congo
This conflict has been simmering for a long time, but recent events have marked a turning point in its escalation. For more than 10 years, Rwanda and the DRC have accused each other of interfering with rebel groups in the North Kivu region of eastern Congo. And the city of Goma — home to about a million people — is practically on the border with Rwanda. It has been captured by the Rwandan group known as the March 23 Movement (M23).
The problem is that after the 1994 genocide of Tutsis in Rwanda, some 2 million Hutu — including those responsible for the genocide — moved east into Congo (then called Zaire). Understandably, such massive displacement created a humanitarian crisis. From that point, the first and then the second Congo wars began, leading to the ouster of Mobutu, rebellions, and other events that did nothing to improve security in the region.
In 2009, there was an unexpected rapprochement between the DRC and Rwanda, ostensibly to «join forces» against the «Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda», a group made up of those same fugitive Hutu that had formed on Congolese territory. But it soon became clear that the agreement was not working, and then rebels — already Tutsi who had been integrated into the Congolese army — along with deserters from that same army formed a new group in eastern Congo. This is how the March 23 Movement was born in 2012.
But just a year later, UN troops, the Congolese army loyal to Kinshasa, and the imposition of harsh American sanctions forced the M23 to retreat. More precisely, they went underground until last year: in July, a UN expert report found that in addition to Congolese refugees fighting on the M23’s side, no fewer than 4,000 soldiers from the Rwandan army were involved, and that Rwanda was «de facto controlling» the group’s operations. In other words, Rwanda had invaded Congolese territory.
At the end of December, before the offensive began, everyone in North Kivu realized the danger and fled. Today, there are 400,000 displaced persons in the region, although «400,000» is a very relative figure. Some say one million.
Since 2023, the head of the DRC, anticipating this turn of events, has adopted a militant, radical rhetoric against its neighbors. Senior army officers echoed this stance, adding their own slogans and promising to «defend the people to the death». Among other sentiments, there was an expression of despair at the impotence of the West, which is unable to support Congo while having effectively sold out to Rwanda.
And just a few days ago, at the end of January, the M23 group took Goma. The population, inflamed by these radical slogans, set fire to Western embassies in Kinshasa. Diplomats from France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the United States — and with them Rwanda and Kenya — had to put out the fires in their missions.
Public anger was also provoked by the fact that the UN Security Council, meeting on the eve of the riots, issued a statement that was «insufficiently firm» and vague in its assessment of the events.
«What they have adopted is the bare minimum», says a Congolese diplomat, «the press release contains no demand for troop withdrawal, no threat of sanctions — and it doesn’t even mention Rwanda».
By the way, Russia’s representative to the UN strongly condemned Rwanda’s actions. Washington limited itself to a press release — also condemning the actions — and Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State, called the head of the DRC. In 2012, during the previous capture of Goma, it was the intervention of the United States that largely contributed to the resolution of the conflict and the retreat of the group.
«Given that the new administration has just taken office, it is unlikely that Washington will prioritize the situation in the Great Lakes region», said a UN diplomat.
Emmanuel Macron also picked up the phone and called both presidents, but his calls went nowhere.
Diplomats and leaders of major nations found themselves in a double bind. At one point, the United Kingdom had reached an agreement with Rwanda (which ultimately failed) to temporarily host migrants while their asylum claims were being processed. France is grateful to Rwanda for its help in maintaining order in the Central African Republic and Mali. In 2023, the European Union signed a «minerals pact» with Rwanda. The United States is preoccupied with other matters.
It is worth noting that if there were a coordinated condemnation of Rwanda’s actions leading to the suspension of aid, the consequences for Rwanda would be dire: one third of the country’s budget comes from foreign aid. But will the next UN Security Council meeting on the conflict take place?
In reality, the struggle there is multifaceted. There is the longstanding conflict between Hutu and Tutsi, and many other issues are intertwined. But the main point is that the rebels are protesting the violation of the 2009 agreement (that same March 23 agreement) that gave them control over the extraction of mineral resources in North Kivu — everything imaginable, starting with gold. But as is typical in Africa, while we have a lot of resources, we can hardly extract much. No one has really gotten rich, and M23 remains nothing more than soldiers in flip-flops.
These comfortable shoes, however, do not prevent them from carrying out their activities in Goma — killing, raping and pillaging. Another concern is that the city is home to the INRB international laboratory, which conducts research on the Ebola virus. According to reports from the lab, the staff has been evacuated, leaving only security guards, and the refrigerators with test tubes are padlocked.
It’s not that this has become an obstacle. The danger is that, frankly, there seems to be a lack of formally trained microbiologists in the ranks of the M23. And padlocks can just be picked off out of curiosity.
«The vast majority of the viruses have been inactivated or transported to Kinshasa, to safe locations. But a few samples remain», says Professor Eric Delaporte, director of research at the INRB.
Other colleagues, less optimistic, believe that if bacterial strains — including Ebola — begin to spread, the consequences will be unimaginable.