White House / Shealah Craighead
The Trump administration is urgently trying to correct the mistakes of its predecessors, lest it lose its global leadership
So, the announced phone call between Donald Trump and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, which was to be organized by the President’s senior trade advisor, Peter Navarro, did not take place. The retaliatory tariffs imposed by China took effect on February 10. Recall that on February 2, Trump signed an order imposing additional tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, seeking certain concessions from each country. Within 24 hours, the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico was suspended for a month because the leaders of these countries immediately contacted Washington and informed them that they accepted the terms of the trade ultimatum. But the call from Beijing — unexpected in the U.S. and predicted by experts — never came. Why not? In short, because China, with all due respect, is not Mexico or even Canada. It is no longer acceptable to speak to Beijing in this tone. One might assume that Trump has not yet realized that China has become completely different during his absence from the White House.
In Washington, however, it is said that Xi allegedly called Trump, but did not reach him, and that the American side, it seems, is in no hurry to resolve the issue. But it looks like this is a kind of American attempt to save face.
The official statements of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Commerce have traditionally reiterated the principled approach of the unacceptability of tariff confrontation and the freedom of trade. Not wanting a trade war, Beijing has nonetheless imposed cautious retaliatory tariffs, demonstrating that it is not afraid of escalation and that there is no point in negotiating from a position of strength. After all, as the Chinese rightly believe, both sides, as well as the entire world, would suffer from a tariff war, and it is unclear who would win.
Meanwhile, Beijing is already in a winning position. By taking a principled stand against tariffs, China looks much more positive in the eyes of the international community, the countries of the Global South, and especially the Asian countries that are China’s main trading partners, including the APEC group, with which the volume of trade has long since surpassed that between China and the United States. The cessation of billions of dollars in U.S. aid through USAID creates more opportunities for China’s «Belt and Road» initiative, which invests around the world, especially in the countries of the Global South. Beijing remains calm because the 10 percent American tariffs — which will be passed on to American consumers — are nothing compared to the 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports promised by Trump. But on the other hand, will Trump dare to impose such tariffs? Will American consumers tolerate such an increase in the price of everything from toilet paper to electronics, given that 60 percent of the goods on U.S. store shelves are Chinese?
And so, after initially provoking Beijing, Washington seems to have rethought its approach and begun to implement its plan from a different angle. Part of this plan, it seems, is to undermine the strategic partnership between China and Russia. This may explain the White House’s rapid steps to improve relations with Moscow. Given the experience of the Biden administration — which sought to deal a strategic blow to Russia while «containing China» through managed competition with China and by pressuring Beijing — Trump is now pursuing a different path. Perhaps he will try to offer Moscow a profitable deal to wean it off China, effectively removing a complicating factor in the confrontation with Beijing.
The essence of this plan is more or less expressed by Tucker Carlson. He passionately explains that under no circumstances can the U.S. leader allow Russia — the largest country in the world in terms of territory, rich in natural resources — to unite with China, a country with too many people but little land and a lack of energy resources. Once united, they would form an alliance that would surpass the U.S. economically and militarily. This must never be allowed to happen. According to Carlson, this is the most important goal for the US, but it was Biden who helped create such an alliance. Moreover, the attempt to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia and wage war to the last Ukrainian has not produced the desired result — Russia’s economy continues to grow, and further sanctions are harming the interests of the U.S. and its allies.
The steps taken by the Trump administration clearly take the initiative away from China, which until now was the only country promoting its peaceful plan for Ukraine and engaging in shuttle diplomacy. It is enough to recall Beijing’s initiative to create a club of «friends of the Ukrainian settlement» and its joint efforts with Brazil in this direction. The conflict in Ukraine affects many countries and regions, and there are many forces interested in its settlement. Now, the United States is taking the initiative in this matter, thereby enhancing its own standing.
But in the end, the main issue is different. Judging by the hasty actions of the White House, they are deeply concerned about China’s rapid rise and are ready to confront it. At the same time, they need to solve a lot of domestic problems and concentrate their resources on the primary area of their foreign policy. Resolving the situation with Russia and shifting the burden of dealing with Ukraine to Europe is a necessary condition in this situation.
And the recent news of China’s leadership in developing artificial intelligence models is compounded by disheartening reports for the U.S. about China’s superiority in robotics, electric vehicles, and other critical sectors. Not to mention infrastructure. It is also troubling that China has built an industry capable of making just about anything, producing more than a third of the world’s output, while U.S. industrial potential is not growing as dynamically. There is little time left to turn things around and «make America great again». For now, the silhouette of a «great China» is becoming increasingly visible on the horizon.