Christophe Licoppe / European Commission
Early elections for the Bundestag, scheduled for February 23, are drifting steadily toward a “GroKo” coalition led by current opposition leader Merz
On the platforms of Germany’s two major television networks, ARD and ZDF, the two leading contenders for the chancellorship — current Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and conservative leader Friedrich Merz — met for a face-to-face debate. This took place just two weeks before the early federal elections on February 23.
The politicians had agreed not to resort to low blows. All in all, the one-and-a-half-hour discussion was detailed but boring. But that’s to be expected in the Federal Republic of Germany. Three issues dominated the debate: migration, the economic situation, and the crisis in Ukraine. Friedrich was on the offensive while Olaf was on the defensive.
After the clash, television viewers gave Scholz a narrow victory. He received 37% of the votes, while Merz received 34%. Another 29% of respondents saw no difference between the politicians’ performances. Scholz was more popular with women and young people, while Merz was more popular with men and older voters.
In fact, the current pre-election situation is predictable — a rarity in recent times. The CDU/CSU (for Merz) is hovering around 29–31%, the SPD (for Scholz) is at 15–17%, the Alternative for Germany (Alice Weidel) is at 19–22%, and the Greens (Robert Habeck) are at 11–14%. Three other groups — the «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance» (6%), the FDP (4%), and the Left Party (4%) — are on the verge of entering parliament.
Logically, the next chancellor should be Merz, with a «GroKo» (Große Koalition or «Grand Coalition») of the CDU/CSU and SPD forming the government. This is why, according to German media, Scholz and Merz refrained from insults and mutual attacks during the televised debate.
Theoretically, of course, other configurations are possible. For example, an alliance between the conservatives and the «Alternative» party (which together would have more than 50%). However, Merz has stated that he is not even considering such an option.
While 33% of respondents favor a government led by Merz in coalition with the Greens, it is unlikely that such an alliance would garner more than 42–43% of the German public’s votes.
Finally, the indefatigable Scholz claims that he has a good chance (60%!) of becoming chancellor again. To do so, he will have to cobble together a coalition of left-wing forces — the SPD, the Greens, the «Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance» and the Left Party. Arithmetically, his chances are slim, but the Bild newspaper does not dismiss the possibility as mere fantasy. My personal diagnosis: Scholz is heading for an honorable retirement; he has already declared that he will not accept a secondary role in a «GroKo».
In my years as a journalist in Germany, I’ve found that it’s easy to stump any German by asking them to explain the peculiarities of the national electoral system.
The Bundestag is elected for a four-year term by universal, direct and secret suffrage, using a mixed system that combines elements of majority and proportional representation. Each citizen who goes to the polling station (voter turnout in the last election was quite high at 76.6%) receives two ballots. On the first ballot, the voter marks the candidate he or she prefers in a particular constituency (there are 299 of them, and many do not coincide with the boundaries of administrative-territorial units). On the second ballot, the voter must choose one of the parties eligible to participate in the elections (this time there are 29). This second ballot is considered more important because it determines the distribution of power in the Parliament, which currently consists of 630 deputies.
A few seats are automatically reserved for national minority parties, such as the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), which represents the interests of Danes living in West Germany on the North Sea islands. The remaining parties must pass a 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. Each party first determines its representation through winners in single-member constituencies and then completes it (according to ranking) with candidates from its party list. However, there is an exception: a political group can enter parliament if its candidates win three direct mandates in the constituencies. This was the case, for example, in the last elections, when the Left Party did not pass the threshold, but three of its representatives secured the coveted direct mandates. In the end, it received all the rights due to a parliamentary party (including state funding), as well as additional seats proportional to the votes it received.
The Chancellor is elected by the members of the Bundestag, who then form the government.
To help voters find the political party that best suits them, Germany uses a special program called Wahl-O-Mat. In the last election, more than a quarter of eligible voters — 15.7 million people — used it. Wahl-O-Mat is an electronic system designed to prepare voters for multiparty elections by helping them make their choice. It has been in use since 2002 and is administered by the Federal Agency for Civic Education. The system presents the user with a list of key questions (usually 30–40) on which the parties differ. For each question, a voter can answer «agree», «disagree», «neutral», or leave the question unanswered. Upon completion, the system provides a percentage match between the voter’s views and those of the parties contesting the election. This process can be repeated with adjusted answers, allowing voters to clarify party positions and make an informed choice.
…On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which ended on February 16, U.S. Vice President JD Vance declined a personal meeting with Scholz, but held an extensive conversation with Merz. This is a rather peculiar forecast from across the ocean for the upcoming elections.