As expected, conservatives have returned to power in Germany
Until the early hours of Sunday morning, Berlin was in suspense over the shape of the new government — two or three parties? If Sahra Wagenknecht’s «Union» had managed to cross the 5% threshold needed to enter the Bundestag, the coalition would have consisted of conservatives, social democrats and the Greens. No ifs or buts. But Sahra’s tally stopped at 4.972%. In the run-up to the snap election on February 23, she lost votes by abandoning her strict anti-war agenda to appeal to the future victor — the CDU/CSU bloc. Her fickleness was not forgiven.
The liberals were also sidelined after provoking the collapse of the «traffic light» coalition. Predictably, they fell by the wayside with only 4.3% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the Left Party made an impressive final surge, rising from outsider status to secure fifth place with a respectable 8.8%. The reason? A recent parliamentary vote on measures to curb migration. It was initiated by conservative leader Friedrich Merz, who managed to push through his resolution with the help of votes from the far-right Alternative for Germany. The violation of the basic democratic principle known as «Brandmauer» — which enforces a taboo on cooperation with nationalists — came at a high price for his bloc. Everyone was outraged. The Left Party even called on citizens to «go to the barricades». This move proved to be the catalyst that mobilized the left-wing electorate. Among young voters, the Left Party eventually took the lead, overtaking the Alternative for Germany.
In the end, the conservative bloc convincingly won the elections with 28.5% of the vote, although this was a few percentage points less than expected. Merz now hopes to take over the chancellorship by Catholic Easter (end of April).
Meanwhile, incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz is packing his bags — even though his minority government will remain in power for a few more months until coalition negotiations are completed and the Bundestag confirms the new cabinet head. Scholz has already declared his party’s defeat and promised to retire.
It was clear from the start that any result below 20% would be the worst in the post-war history of German social democracy. The party got only 16.4%. Olaf immediately set two records. First, he became the head of government with the shortest tenure in power; and second, he is the only SPD chancellor not to be re-elected for a second term.
Despite their electoral defeat, the Social Democrats will remain in power as the junior partner in the «GroKo» (Große Koalition). The question of who will represent them in Merz’s government remains open. Party leadership elections are expected soon. Most likely, the new leader of the SPD will be the current Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, who is the most popular German politician at the moment — and he is also expected to get the post of Deputy Prime Minister.
There is a separate story about the uncooperative Alternative for Germany, which advocates radical restrictions on migration, leaving the European Union, stopping arms supplies to Ukraine, and lifting sanctions against Russia. It is celebrating a historic success with 20.8% of the vote — doubling its result from the previous election. The party’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, believes that Merz’s government will be unstable and eventually collapse, and that in a few years the Alternative — openly favored by the influential advisor to the American president, Elon Musk — will come to the fore.
The Greens ended up in a shattered state: although they secured 11.6%, they missed out on any ministerial portfolios. What will happen, for example, to the striking and, forgive the expression, inept Annalena Baerbock? At the end of last year, she divorced her husband — who had sacrificed his career to devote himself to raising their two teenage daughters — in order to enter the political fray. Who needs a wife who is never at home? Suffice it to recall that Annalena visited Ukraine about ten times in recent years and was seen there wearing a helmet and bulletproof vest. In time, her compatriot Ursula von der Leyen may call her under the banner of the European Commission, but that is not the same scale.
Finally, here are some interesting and partly revealing statistics about the elections. Voter turnout was very high at 84% (three and a half years ago it was 76.6%). A total of 59.2 million voters were eligible to vote. Of these, 24.9 million (42%) were over the age of 60. About 2.3 million (3.9%) were young people who voted for the first time at the age of 18. About 200,000 German citizens registered to vote from abroad, although there are 3–4 million of them. The low turnout among these voters was due to bureaucratic difficulties and the need to send ballots by mail to their home countries.
A total of 29 political parties participated in the elections. However, only ten ran in all 16 states. Among them were some exotic ones, such as the pro-European Volt Party and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany. As expected, their representatives faltered.
Now, in Germany, the most interesting phase is about to begin: coalition negotiations. The initial positions may change considerably. The question remains — what antics will Scholz pull in the few months he has left in power? Everyone remembers how, in a similar period, Joe Biden handed over another tranche and pardoned his son. But Olaf, it seems, will keep his head down so as not to weaken his party’s negotiating position. Merz, who has already received congratulations from Trump himself, will also be busy. The main issues will be economic stagnation and inflation, along with assembling his team. Ukraine will have to wait.