In Helsinki, there were fears that Trump’s interest in rapprochement with Russia could discredit the alliance’s eastward expansion
Initially, the wave was created by the American media. On the other side of the ocean, they began to publish in unison predictions that, as part of a grand bargain, Donald Trump could allegedly reach an agreement with the Kremlin on maintaining neutral positions on a number of geopolitical issues. In particular, Moscow might agree not to interfere in Washington’s «handling of China on its own», while the United States would reconsider its stance on Ukraine, NATO, and the Baltic states.
The hype was further fueled by administration officials. For example, on February 23, the US president’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, reminded everyone that it was precisely the statements about Ukraine’s possible membership in the North Atlantic Alliance that provoked Russia’s counteractions. Moreover, Trump himself has repeatedly stated in recent days that the main cause of the Ukrainian crisis was the Alliance’s misguided eastward expansion.
The news from the other side of the ocean reached the Land of a Thousand Lakes in distorted form and provoked an exaggerated reaction. Jussi Lassila, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, nonchalantly told the STT news agency that Trump could «expel Sweden and Finland from NATO» as part of a deal with Russia.
«Trump’s willingness to make concessions to Moscow may prove to be truly unprecedented», the Finnish researcher warned.
According to him, in the context of discussions on security guarantees for Russia, the occupant of the White House is quite capable of agreeing to return NATO’s borders to those of 1997 — that is, to the situation that existed before the Alliance’s expansion began. He noted that Putin consistently opposes the accession of former Soviet republics and neighboring countries to the bloc and «views NATO as a direct existential threat».
It is necessary here to clarify the source of all this information frenzy, which has turned into a real scare story in Finland. As the rapidly growing debate in this once neutral country has made clear, Lassila’s opinion is based on a list of Russia’s demands on NATO that was presented in December 2021, shortly before the start of the special military operation. At the time, however, there was no mention of expelling anyone from the alliance. The Kremlin merely insisted that Brussels stop its policy of expansion toward Russia’s borders and withdraw its troops and weapons from countries that joined the bloc after 1997. That meant the Baltic states and Poland. Russia also maintained that NATO should not establish new military bases in the former Soviet republics.
Recall that the military-political bloc was founded in 1949. Initially, NATO included 12 countries, including the United States and Canada. Subsequently, the borders of the alliance expanded to the edges of the Russian Federation — despite the promise not to do so. It now has 32 members, including the Baltic states, several Eastern European countries, and Turkey. Finland officially became a member of the bloc on April 4, 2023, and Sweden on March 7, 2024.
For the sake of membership in the coveted union, Finland cut the branch on which it had long sat since the post-Great Patriotic War period, completely ruined extremely beneficial economic relations with its eastern neighbor, and embraced an extreme degree of Russophobia.
And before the United States, official Helsinki didn’t just bow — it literally went down on its knees. On December 18, 2023, an agreement was signed in Washington to strengthen defense cooperation with the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen put their signatures to it. It is noteworthy that on the American side the signature came from the top diplomat of the now defunct Biden administration, while on the Finnish side it came from a military man.
Even then, questions arose: what was the point of all this? Could Washington be afraid that NATO might soon come to an end? That would be unlikely under a Democratic administration, but Trump has long railed against the bloc and threatened to leave it.
But let’s return to the extensive (37 pages) «defense» agreement, the text of which was published on the official website of the Finnish government. Among other things, the document provides for unimpeded and free access for the Pentagon to facilities on Finnish territory, including 15 military bases, ports, airfields, and roads. A list of these is attached to the agreement, which applies to the entire territory of Suomi. The agreement regulates the procedures for the entry and exit of American military personnel, as well as their import and export of weapons, equipment, and machinery. It also outlines the conditions for issuing the necessary documents, the specifics of legal regulation of possible incidents, the procedure for involving contractors, and other issues important for the presence of the U.S. Armed Forces in Finland.
To win Uncle Sam’s favor, Suomi has been generous in supporting the American defense industry. This despite the enormous difficulties facing its economy. For example, in the polar city of Rovaniemi, known as the home of Santa Claus, construction began in September 2023 on a military base for fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets ordered from the U.S. — aircraft that, among other things, can carry nuclear weapons. The plan is to build 64 of the planes at a total cost of $9.4 billion. The first F-35 are expected to visit Santa Claus later this year.
And what’s the end result? An American kick in the pants and an exit from NATO? There is no more frightening prospect for the Finns. Objectively speaking, the fine but not very bright Finns are exaggerating, of course. The Yankees did not crawl to the European north to leave the region that opens the door to the Arctic. They will certainly stay here, if necessary, even without NATO.