EU defense summit in Brussels: How and what is proposed to replace American aid
Even before the European summit began, the French president addressed the nation with his vision for the future of European — and especially French — participation in both financial and military aid to Ukraine as an alternative to American support. There were many uplifting points, but the most important was Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that European countries use France’s nuclear capabilities as a deterrent on the continent.
What is most interesting here is that this initiative — at that time still only an idea — had received a positive response from the future German chancellor Friedrich Merz, even though, as a reminder, the FRG is not allowed to have its own nuclear program.
«Our nuclear deterrent, in place since 1964, protects us and plays an important role in maintaining peace and security in Europe», Macron said. «Now, in response to the historic call of the future German chancellor, I have decided to open a debate on defending our allies on the continent with our deterrent forces».
Thus, European countries are offered to come under the French nuclear umbrella, but the decision to deploy the weapons will be made solely by the French president. If such a decision were left to the EU, by the time all 27 countries reached an agreement, it would be far too late.
The European plan «ReArm Europe», presented by the President of the European Commission at the EU summit, consists of several dossiers. The main one is the creation of a fund from which EU countries will draw resources for investments in defense, primarily in air defense systems and artillery — this is the main gap that emerged after the United States withdrew from the aid program.
As is often the case, behind the impressive figures lies a more complex explanation. Part of that money will go toward offsetting the increase in national defense budgets. In other words, the EU is allowing you to exceed spending limits that, in some cases, might even spur inflation — and we will cover all the excess.
This fund, it has been decided, will amount to 150 billion euros. The total rearmament program is 800 billion, but that is for the long term. For 2025, 30 billion will be allocated — the EU has calculated that no more will be needed for the current year, as there seem to be reserves.
In fact, it turns out that the Ukrainians have managed to set up the production of drones, and according to their classified data, they currently have enough. They also produce shells for 155-millimeter guns, but experts believe that they are not as accurate and effective as European and American ones.
Naturally, the main burden of arms production will fall on Germany, which is the second largest supplier of equipment to Ukraine after the United States, and also on France.
Emmanuel Macron has already called for a military reorientation of the country’s economy. Now, he says, the time has really come. He proposes not just to take money from the EU and use it to produce weapons, but to completely change the whole approach to helping Ukraine.
The first step is to produce many more weapons on its own territory. This call has been answered by a dozen major French arms «grands» and 4,000 medium and small enterprises. They will form the Industrial and Technological Defense Base. Their first meeting with the President and the relevant ministers will take place in the coming days.
In other words, the essence of this platform is to shift from continuous weapons production to stockpiling. That is, to abandon the small-scale production of weapons — which takes years, if not decades, to manufacture — and whose delivery schedules are endlessly delayed because they depend on the Defense Ministry’s budget, which itself fluctuates according to other state needs.
«Industry can increase production», says Philippe Keryer, Director of Development at Thales Group, «but we cannot mix genres here: we need orders on our tables, not just good intentions to order something».
In other words, increase the defense budget. Macron had essentially assumed this, but he wants to do it without raising taxes, lest citizens, metaphorically speaking, storm the Bastille (which has already been demolished). In his view, industry needs a vision of about 10 years. This year, France’s defense spending is up 3.3 percent over last year. But Paris simply does not have a 10-year horizon at the moment.
The French defense industry is currently operating at 90 percent of capacity. According to industry experts, there are still reserves to be found.
For example, aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation, which builds the Rafale fighter, is ready to increase production to 5 units per month. The company is now producing three units, up from one in 2001.
The Franco-German KNDS group, which manufactures armored vehicles and ground weapons, produces 350 units per year (100 in 2020) and plans to increase production to 540 in the short term. Production of the CAESAR self-propelled artillery system has moved to a conveyor belt process, similar to that used in car factories. In this process, the group has invested 500 million of its own funds, resulting in a fourfold increase in the production of self-propelled artillery systems last year. However, the production of a 9-meter gun weighing 1.2 tons takes 9–10 months.
Macron’s second step is to involve the private sector in the financing — investment funds, banks, stock market structures, which previously did not invest much in defense, since in the EU such investments were viewed with suspicion and subjected to additional taxes. Now France wants to do the necessary work with the EU to review this approach.
There is even the idea of issuing a national defense bond, and according to recent polls, 45 percent of the French would buy such a bond.
Germany is supplying Ukraine with air defense systems, ammunition and tanks. And they still have to support a million Ukrainian refugees. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made a bold statement:
«We are ready to consider the possibility of compensating for some of the aid that the Americans have cut off. In any case, a substantial part of it».
It should not be forgotten that Europe buys two-thirds of its weapons from the same United States, and that 300 billion euros are sent across the ocean every year. (This is also related to the fact that Trump complained that Europeans don’t buy anything from America — they only sell.)
It may happen — in fact, it’s more likely — that the same American shells, Patriot air defense systems, their ammunition, HIMARS systems (which are already in short supply in Ukraine), and 155-millimeter artillery shells will still end up there, but now through European buyers via «gray» schemes. The American defense industry has also received substantial injections of cash, has ramped up production, and will take a long time to slow down.
There is also an intriguing initiative unrelated to the EU summit. Some 70 European and American parliamentarians, former ministers and politicians have proposed the creation of a system called «SkyShield». Let us note at the outset that these are all former officials, with many familiar names — Landsbergis, Kwaśniewski, the former NATO commander, and so on.
SkyShield is to consist of 120 fighter jets — from F-35 to Mirages — that will patrol areas where no combat operations are taking place. This will help strengthen the protection of the skies over Kharkov, Dnepr, Zaporozhzhye and Krivoy Rog. The group is planned to be based in Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic, while auxiliary airfields could be provided by Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. At the same time, all intelligence will be conducted by NATO structures, although the initiative itself does not belong to the alliance.
A strong project. However, it remains unclear where the 120 available fighter jets will come from.