Details of a possible “Trump deal” to improve relations with Moscow have emerged — the United States is reportedly planning to sell Russian gas to Europeans
On March 5, the European Commission once again postponed the presentation of its roadmap for the complete cutoff of Russian energy resources by 2027. The delay coincided suspiciously with reports in several Western media outlets about U.S. attempts to resume pipeline gas supplies from Russia to Germany via the intact branch of Nord Stream 2.
This story seems rather odd, given that many in Russia see the United States as the main instigator and accomplice in undermining the «streams» in the Baltic Sea in September 2022.
The first to get the ball rolling were the British Financial Times and the German tabloid Bild. They all claim that secret negotiations have been going on for several weeks in the office of the Nord Stream 2 operator in Switzerland, allegedly involving U.S. special presidential envoy Richard Grenell, who has visited Switzerland several times. He strongly denies these allegations.
Meanwhile, the media make it clear that all consultations are taking place without the participation of Russia, the European Union, or Germany. Sources from these publications claim that America would like to act as an intermediary in the supply of Russian gas to Germany via NS-2, but only at the level of private companies. Transatlantic companies would buy the Russian «blue fuel» and sell it to the Europeans — essentially «making money out of thin air» while retaining the power to turn off the tap at any time. Official Washington, however, sees such a deal as a way to normalize relations with Moscow in the long term and as an additional lever to pressure the Kremlin in negotiations over a Ukrainian settlement.
Two key participants in the negotiations have been named. On the American side, Stephen Lynch — founder of the investment firm Monte Valle and one of the sponsors of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign — is laying claim to the assets of Nord Stream 2. He is well known in Russia. In 2007, Lynch came into the limelight during a deal to acquire the foreign assets of Yukos.
On the side of the NS-2 operating company is the German businessman Matthias Warnig, known in the West as a «friend of Putin». They met back in the late 1980s; the German served in the East German Ministry of State Security («Stasi»), while the Russian President worked in the Dresden office of the KGB. In the early 1990s, after German reunification, contact was renewed. From 2003 to 2015, Warnig sat on the supervisory board of Bank «Russia» (whose main shareholder is one of the Kovalchuk brothers — Yury). But let’s continue. Since 2006, Matthias has worked in companies managing the first and second NS. He rose to the position of CEO of Nord Stream 2 (the owner of the pipeline), a role he left a year after the start of the Special Military Operation — in 2023.
By the way, Warnig also told journalists that he is «not involved in any secret negotiations with American politicians or businessmen». This is not surprising — serious deals are worked out in silence and away from prying eyes.
But as the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire. Reuters noted that Lynch and Warnig had previously crossed paths on a major deal. At one point, the German secured Rosneft’s support for the buyers of Yukos’ foreign assets, to which the company’s Russian assets had been transferred. The puzzle is starting to come together.
In parallel, another version is circulating, mainly in the Federal Republic of Germany: German authorities are said to be considering the possibility of using part of the NS-2 to import «green» hydrogen from Finland. The company P2X Solutions has already started its first production plant in Kharyavalta. Two more plants — in Joensuu and Oulu — are next in line. Technically, it is not very difficult to convert the pipeline into a hydrogen pipeline. However, it is necessary to make a connection at a suitable point on the bottom of the Baltic Sea by tapping into a line coming from Suomi, which is also possible. Experts point to the example of the OAL pipeline from Lubmin in Germany to the island of Rügen, which was built using spare NS-2 pipes. It was designed so that it could be converted to transport hydrogen.
Three companies from Denmark, Sweden, and Finland are working on the Baltic Sea Hydrogen Collector (BHC) project. As the consortium reports, building a pipeline from scratch is «extremely expensive», so it makes sense to use the surviving NS-2 branch. «It makes no sense for the pipes to just rust on the bottom of the Baltic Sea», the concessionaires boldly declared.
However, this version is noticeably inferior to the first, gas-oriented one. Moreover, there is no American «driver» involved in this scenario.
The sabotage of Nord Streams became one of the most striking illustrations of the failure of the European policy of «change through trade», which was based on the idea that economic cooperation with the USSR, and later with Russia after its collapse, would guarantee stability in the Old World. The Ukrainian crisis seemed to put an end to this project. But apparently not for Uncle Sam, for whom «everything is possible»…
It is worth recalling that before the Special Military Operation, Russia’s share in European supplies was almost 45%. Last year, when transit through Ukraine was still ongoing, Russia’s contribution to Europe’s gas reserves «weighed» about 20%, having increased compared to 2023 (when it was 15%). After Kiev closed the pipeline, supplies declined but remain significant. Russia is still the second largest exporter of LNG to the EU after the United States — about 6.6%.
So the game is not over.