This could be its new role in the Middle East
Last week, news spread around the world that the United States had asked Russia to help achieve a new nuclear deal with Iran. This has not been officially confirmed, but neither has it been denied. This suggests that the matter is being taken very seriously. As a result, Russia could play an extraordinarily important role in shaping a new framework for the Middle East.
The idea of involving Moscow in resolving the issues between Washington and Tehran was raised after the signing of a Russian-Iranian strategic cooperation agreement. This may indicate that the Trump administration recognizes the legitimacy and effectiveness of the Moscow-Tehran link: in the eyes of the White House, it is no longer an «axis of evil», but rather a structure that can and should be relied upon. Moreover, it is precisely this structure that is capable of achieving the essential goal — the implementation of a new nuclear deal.
This is not about «resurrecting» the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). That formula is unacceptable to Trump and hopelessly outdated, as IAEA Director General Grossi has noted. But what could replace it? It is quite possible that the alternative could be a format based on agreements between the Russian Federation, Iran and the United States — without the participation of Europe. In other words, a model similar to the one promoted by Trump in Ukraine.
The essence of the agreement could be as follows: America and Russia recognize Iran’s de facto nuclear status, while Iran agrees not to use or threaten to use its nuclear weapons. Russia would act as a guarantor of such «appropriate behavior» on the part of Iran. This situation would mirror the position of Israel in the region — also a de facto nuclear-armed state for which the United States vouches for responsible behavior. If this is the case, the deal could establish the main supporting structure of a regional system: a balanced equilibrium between Israel and Iran that would serve as the basis for stabilizing the region.
From this perspective, Russia is emerging as a mediator not so much between the United States and Iran, but rather between Iran and Israel. This is highly significant because it means that Moscow — with the consent of all leading regional players and in cooperation with the United States — is actively working to establish a new regional balance of power. Moreover, this system would go beyond a single Tel Aviv-Tehran axis.
Another axis that apparently cannot do without Russian mediation is the Tel Aviv-Ankara axis. In early March, it was reported that Israel had expressed interest in maintaining the Russian military presence in Syria in order to prevent Turkey from becoming too strong there. This development takes place against the backdrop of Trump’s declared intention to withdraw American forces from the Syrian Arab Republic — forces that, until now, have served as a deterrent against a large-scale war by the Turkish army against the Syrian Kurds. In other words, Russia is being offered the role of replacing the United States, which opens up opportunities for Moscow to actively mediate between the Turks and the Israelis. It seems that neither side doubts the Kremlin’s ability to solve even the most complex problems, as evidenced by the rapid withdrawal of Assad and his Iranian backers — an outcome that would have been difficult to achieve without Russian influence.
Finally, the third axis: Ankara-Tehran. Here, Russia has gained considerable experience through the «Astana format». It appears that this experience may soon be in high demand; following the rise of pro-Turkish forces in Damascus, tensions between Iran and Turkey have become increasingly noticeable. So far, these tensions have been limited to verbal sparring at the foreign ministry level. However, it is clear that Turkey’s new role in Syria is causing concern not only in Tel Aviv but also in Tehran. The Iranians are also worried about developments in the South Caucasus, where a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance is gaining strength. In these circumstances, the parties need a regular mechanism for dialogue — one that would be difficult to establish without Russia’s involvement, since there seem to be no other candidates for the role of mediator.
Thus, a unique situation seems to be emerging in which Russia, in coordination with the United States, is given carte blanche to mediate between the three main non-Arab players in the Middle East. Such a configuration has probably never existed before. This is undoubtedly an enormous achievement for Russian diplomacy and foreign policy as a whole. If Russia masters the role of a universal mediator in the Middle East, it will be a truly historic breakthrough.