AP
During preliminary coalition talks, the parties had to backtrack on some of their pre-election promises
In Berlin, «exploratory talks» have ended and negotiations to form a government coalition — known as the «GroKo» («Grand Coalition») of conservatives and social democrats — have begun. Negotiating groups met at the CDU headquarters late last week. Sixteen working groups have been formed and are tasked with drafting proposals for the coalition agreement in their respective thematic areas by March 24. In the final stage, 19 people will consolidate all the proposals, including the party leaders — Christian Democrat and potential chancellor Friedrich Merz, SPD co-chairs Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken, and Left Party leader Markus Söder. The coalition is expected to be finalized in April, before the Easter holidays.
The conservatives have pushed through a version of a reform of the Basic Law (the constitution) with the old composition of the parliament. On March 13, the proposals were approved in the first reading at an extraordinary session and are expected to pass the second reading by mid-week. On March 21, the changes are to be approved by the Bundesrat, which is composed of representatives of the federal states.
The haste is explained by the fact that in the new Bundestag, which will convene no later than April 25, the far-right Alternative for Germany and the Left Party will have a so-called «blocking minority». Without them, it will be impossible to change the constitution.
There may also be difficulties with the old composition of the Bundestag. To secure the necessary two-thirds majority, Merz and his coalition need the support of either the Greens or the Liberals. Allies of Annalena Baerbock have stated that they are willing to support only an increase in defense spending, while demanding further revisions in other areas. Representatives of the SPD, blamed for the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition, are fundamentally opposed to easing debt restrictions. But the winners are working closely with them.
Meanwhile, the disgruntled «alternative» camp is trying — without much success — to prevent the outgoing parliament from adopting these fateful decisions. They have filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court. The Left Party, which adheres to pacifist positions and opposes any increase in defense spending, has done the same. Even if the proposals are passed, the AdG will continue to challenge them in the future.
What’s at stake? The GroKo plans to create a special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure projects — including the repair of roads, bridges, schools and more — over 10 years, as well as unprecedented funding for the rearmament of the Bundeswehr (around 400 billion euros). German media have described these sums as «historic» and “staggering. To put the audacity of the plan into perspective, recall that federal budget expenditures in 2024 will be about 466 billion euros, of which about 52 billion will go to the military.
Regarding the removal of debt restrictions for defense, expenditures of up to one percent of GDP are to be covered by the treasury, with the remainder to be financed by borrowing.
It is expected that in the coming years spending on the needs of the Armed Forces and aid to Ukraine will exceed three percent of GDP. Currently, this indicator stands at two percent, which corresponds to the minimum mandatory level of defense spending for NATO members. Trump, by the way, wants it to be five percent. Germany has reached this level thanks to the special fund for the Bundeswehr, which will be established in 2022 with a volume of 100 billion euros. At the moment, however, this fund is practically empty.
It should be noted that Merz made significant concessions by agreeing to a constitutional reform of the «debt brake» rules. Preserving the debt brake had been one of his key pre-election promises — one that he ultimately failed to keep.
In reality, this is a nod to the fading figures of Scholz and Baerbock, who promoted the idea but failed to implement it. Now it is precisely the «comrades» — as representatives of the SPD are called in Germany — who are putting intense pressure on the Greens and Liberals to support changes to the Basic Law.
A year ago, the «traffic light» coalition succeeded in changing the citizenship law to make it much easier to obtain a German passport. Merz promised that if he won, he would undo these changes — especially the shortened naturalization periods and the possibility of retaining one’s previous citizenship when acquiring German citizenship. Now he has backtracked and abandoned his intentions: the citizenship law remains unchanged.
In retaliation, the conservatives succeeded in pushing the Social Democrats toward a tougher immigration policy. Merz succeeded in including in the coalition documents a ban on entry into Germany for anyone without the necessary documents. The «comrades» initially categorically rejected this, emphasizing that this measure violated both the Basic Law and EU legislation. In the end, the SPD withdrew its objections: asylum seekers will be turned back at the border, but only «in coordination with our European neighbors». And what happens if the neighbors do not agree to such an approach?
It must be acknowledged that the potential partners also had differences on other pressing issues — including tax reform, the so-called «citizen’s income» and social benefits for the unemployed and refugees. However, these differences will undoubtedly be overcome. Merz has only one more step to take to secure his goal of the top cabinet position in the Chancellor’s Office.