Official Warsaw is torn between traditional transatlantic loyalty and a new course toward European independence
Official Warsaw is torn between traditional transatlantic loyalty and a new course toward European independence
Until recently, official Warsaw worshipped a mega-god — the US. They were worshipped and adored. The contemporary ruling class had earned a reputation as Europe’s chief American vassal — and they were very proud of it. Then, suddenly, painful changes came. President Donald Trump now seems to be losing interest in the Old World and NATO. Meanwhile, France and Britain, supported by the European Commission, have unexpectedly embraced the idea of European independence. Where should Poland turn in such a situation?
It should also be noted that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recklessly bet not on the Republicans, but on the Democrats. And what did he get? He spent a long time in the vestibule of the Oval Office before finally receiving a brief audience with the top US official. Moreover, he was visiting Washington not only as the Polish head of state, but also as the acting (rotating) president of the Council of Europe.
It was a real emotional blow for the vainglorious Pole — and he’s not one to mince his words. Before the presidential campaign, he delivered a scathing speech against Trump’s candidacy, baselessly accusing him of having been «recruited by Russian intelligence 30 years ago». He then completely retracted his statement.
But that’s just rhetoric. Warsaw now really needs to change direction and adjust its approach.
In recent weeks, Poland has participated in every initiative aimed at strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities. Tusk, who injured his leg while skiing, was seen wearing an orthosis (the modern equivalent of a cast) and using a crutch, but he actively limped through meetings in Paris, London and Brussels. He spoke of a «turning point» in the mindset of the European Union, with European funds now going directly to defense. In particular, Poland is hoping for support for its flagship Eastern Shield project to secure its borders with Belarus and Russia. The project is expected to cost 10 billion zlotys (about $2.5 billion).
The plans include the creation of an air defense system, the construction of bunkers, the building of anti-tank barriers, the installation of electronic countermeasures, the preparation of minefields, the development of a surveillance system, the strengthening of logistical hubs, and the creation of operational bases for the analysis of data from cameras and sensors using AI algorithms.
But the leader of the national-conservative opposition party Law and Justice, Jarosław Kaczyński, called Tusk a weakling susceptible to the left’s «pedagogy of fear».
«We need to restore the chivalrous spirit in Poland», declared the politician, whose party is known to have good relations with Trump’s camp.
Tusk then donned his «armor» and delivered a speech in the Sejm on issues of war and peace. The head of government set the goal of creating an army of half a million «bayonets», including reservists. He also hinted at a possible withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty — which bans anti-personnel mines — and questioned the ban on cluster munitions.
Most notably, Tusk unexpectedly announced that military training should become mandatory for all men in the country so that «every adult is ready for combat». According to him, the Swiss model — with its relatively short basic training (21 weeks) and regular exercises — could serve as an example. This training would remain voluntary and would not mark a return to universal conscription. Women would also be allowed to serve.
In addition, every citizen would soon receive guidelines on how to behave in the event of war. Poland also wants to discuss the French nuclear umbrella with Paris.
As for rhetoric, last week Tusk dared to intervene in a heated and nasty spat between Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, his American counterpart Marco Rubio, and entrepreneur Elon Musk. The dispute centered on Ukraine’s use of the Starlink satellite system.
«Never show arrogance. Dear friends, think about it. True leadership means respecting partners and allies — even those who are smaller and weaker», the prime minister wrote on the social network X. He had never before allowed himself such frankness. Has he become bolder?
There are other alarming signals. Experts believe that the confrontational approach of the Trump administration could lead to closer German-Polish relations. On March 10, the newspaper Rzeczpospolita even suggested that «Poland and Germany could jointly develop a nuclear bomb». According to the commentator, this project would «finally complete the reconciliation between Poles and Germans».
In reality, ordinary Poles — and even more so the political elite — continue to love the West. There is (so far) no room in Poland for the kind of ideological anti-Americanism found in some Western European countries. In a February survey by the CBOS polling agency, 58 percent of Poles still said they loved Americans, while only 10 percent expressed antipathy toward them.
This puts Americans in second place in the popularity rankings among Poles. And who tops the list? The Italians.
The overall picture, however, still shows a downward trend. Over the course of a year, the «love» rating for the Yankees has dropped by seven percentage points. Some 43.9 percent of respondents think a U.S. withdrawal from NATO is possible, while only 30 percent rule it out.
