Reuters
The verdict against the leader of the National Rally was expected. The party now moves on to Plan B — Bardella
It feels as though nearly everyone in the European institutions is doing exactly what Marine Le Pen was accused of — at least, that’s the impression. So the easiest way to «rein in» a fast-rising candidate for the Élysée Palace in 2027 is to go after the National Rally’s representation in the European Parliament.
Well, it’s certainly outrageous to have one’s personal «historical» bodyguard — who used to protect her father, Jean-Marie, and then Marine, and now Jordan Bardella — as a parliamentary assistant. And the vice-president of the party, also the head of Marine’s presidential campaign and mayor of Perpignan, allegedly received a salary of 2,560 euros «for sorting paper mail». Seriously? He regularly traveled to Brussels just to open envelopes?
It’s a strange story. On the one hand, the violations are obvious, though if you really started digging in the European Parliament… But the law is the same for everyone — just look at Sarkozy, who’s wearing an electronic ankle bracelet. On the other hand, the issue is now being pushed by the opposition — over 10 million French citizens voted for the National Rally. So what, are they going to be deprived of their right to vote? Hence all the talk of «trampling French democracy with hobnailed boots».
Marine, furious but stone-faced, left the courtroom halfway through the reading of the verdict and was back at party headquarters within fifteen minutes. Her colleagues and the party leadership quickly gathered there. After about an hour and a half of discussion, they announced that Jordan Bardella would run in Marine’s place in the next presidential election.
Marine’s own chances of getting out of this situation seem rather illusory. That same morning, before the verdict was announced, a poll in Le Figaro showed her with 37% in the first round, while her closest rivals didn’t even reach 20%. This suggests a resounding victory in the second round. Bonjour, Élysée Palace.
She will now file an appeal, then possibly go to the Court of Cassation. But for the five-year ban on running for office to be lifted, both higher courts would have to prove her innocence — no small feat. In the meantime, the legal process must be completed before March 1, 2027, the deadline for registering presidential candidates.
Bardella is currently riding a wave of popularity. He’s «on air» non-stop, traveling around the country, constantly visible on social media. Just recently, together with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen — Marine’s niece — he visited Israel at the invitation of the authorities and took part in a rather important conference. It’s worth noting that Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, was notoriously anti-Semitic, so the mere fact that Israel invited the head of the party (the heir to the National Front) is already a big deal. During his speech, Bardella developed the idea of a «common enemy» — Islamic terrorism — suggesting that, purely arithmetically, «we» (his party) and Israel might even be on the same side.
The latest polls — taken on the day the verdict was announced — suddenly show that among National Rally supporters, 60% now prefer Bardella, and only 40% support Marine.
For one thing, the NR’s electoral base is getting younger: millennials and zoomers (and the latter already have the right to vote) find Bardella, a «cool», modern, good-looking figure, more appealing than the legacy of the late Jean-Marie or even Marine herself.
Second, Marine has run for president three times and made it to the second round twice. However, the results weren’t the typical 51% to 49% that one would expect in a European democracy, where only a few tens of thousands of votes would decide the outcome. In the last election, Macron beat her by more than 58%. That’s a significant gap, evidence that many French voters are still thinking «anyone but Le Pen». The elder Le Pen left such a loathsome reputation that Marine, despite her best efforts, hasn’t been able to completely shake it off, even if 42% is an impressive result.
Third, already 25% of NR sympathizers believe that a «successor» would allow them to turn the page on the Le Pen name. Nevertheless, Marine remains the most popular politician in France on the day of the verdict, with Bardella in third place.
The problem, however, is that Jordan is only 29. It’s hard to imagine him as the leader of a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, sparring with Putin or Trump. Last November, he released his autobiography (already?) called What I’m Looking For. Marine has hinted that she won’t let anyone hurt «her fledgling».
«Even if you manage — one way or another — to get rid of Marine Le Pen, you will never succeed in dealing with Jordan Bardella», she said.
In other words, the verdict only changes things for Marine personally — and for the historic Le Pen name. The voters she has shaped are in fact voting more for the idea than for the name itself.
So what’s their relationship?
«I’m proud of him», Marine often repeats. “We agree on almost every political issue; we understand each other completely», says Le Pen.
In 2022 — he was only 26 at the time — she promised him the post of prime minister if she was elected president of the republic. «It seems that Marine is transferring her relationship with her father to the relationship she’s building with Jordan Bardella», observes one of Marine’s aides, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Le Pen’s trial has thus revealed a new leader for France’s far right. Bardella has led the party for two and a half years, and he’s reshaping it horizontally and vertically. There are already signs of tension with some of her aides and Marine’s inner circle. But as one NR deputy put it, «Bardella doesn’t hunt in a pack». He’s carving out a place for himself, and the path ahead is now open.
What about Marine? She remains innocent until the appeals court rules, but the best-case scenario is that the court will convene in late 2025 — or more likely, the first quarter of 2026.
«My client has never denied the facts as alleged», said one of Le Pen’s lawyers, Rodolphe Bosselut. «She disputed that these allegations should be prosecuted as a criminal offense… We have one more avenue of appeal — it is very narrow and precarious, but we will pursue it».
From there, three scenarios unfold:
1. The Court of Appeal upholds the Paris court’s decision. Everything remains in force; Le Pen appeals to the Court of Cassation, but all the decisions of the lower court remain in force in the meantime. Time passes, and there’s no longer any chance of registering for the run on the Élysée Palace.
2. The Court of Appeal suspends the immediate ban of March 31st on running for elected office (i.e. it grants a stay of execution). In this scenario, she immediately appeals to the Court of Cassation, which also grants a stay, and Marine Le Pen runs in 2027.
3. The Court of Appeal fully acquits Marine Le Pen. Everything returns to the status quo of late March 2025. Everyone is happy (except probably Jordan Bardella).
There’s one more possibility on the far right: the possible candidacy of Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, Marine’s niece. She’s also an energetic, fairly experienced politician — I’ve interviewed her several times, and her charisma and conviction really shine through, to be honest. However, she has been sidelined for a long time by her aunt and is only active on a regional level. She doesn’t have Bardella’s popularity or star power. But anything is possible. In any case, Marine-the French «Iron Lady» — has decided not to back down.
They’re just not that kind of family.