The disproportionate presence of Baltic hardliners in EU executive bodies damages its image and efficiency
It seems that Estonians not only process things slowly, but also see the world through a distorted lens. They’ve begun to believe that their small but proud country is the center of the universe.
Just days ago, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur unexpectedly declared that he could «solve the problem with the aggressive eastern neighbor in just two days».
«I’m not afraid of Russia. Estonia is one of the best-prepared NATO countries for war with Russia. We can mobilize 44,000 soldiers in less than 48 hours. I know very few countries that can amass that many forces so quickly», he told Germany’s Bild.
For reference: Estonia’s professional army consists of about 8,000 troops, with another 38,000 in reserves.
In the same interview, Pevkur emphasized that Estonians perceive Russia as a threat and are alarmed by the Kremlin’s plans to expand the army to 1.5 million. In other words, he fails to grasp the obvious imbalance of power in the event of a conflict. Clearly, arithmetic isn’t his strong suit.
Moving on. On May 14, a revealing incident took place, highlighting the mindset of the «new Estonians». The Gabon-flagged tanker Jaguar was sailing in the Gulf of Finland’s neutral waters en route to the Russian port of Primorsk when Estonian authorities ordered it to enter Estonian territorial waters. Had the ship complied, Estonian forces would have had the right to detain it. Some Western outlets have linked the ship to Russia’s so-called «shadow fleet».
The Jaguar ignored the demand. In response, Estonian forces deployed a patrol vessel, a speedboat, helicopters, a Polish aircraft, and drones. They attempted to ram and board the ship twice. The operation was abandoned only after a Russian Su-35S fighter jet appeared overhead.
The cargo ship had a mixed crew of 21, including four Russians, and an Indian captain. The ship eventually reached Primorsk, though it was thoroughly inspected by divers first. The sabotage of another tanker in Ust-Luga remains fresh in memory, and the main theory is that it was deliberately attacked.
Last December, Finnish forces boarded and detained the Cook Islands-flagged tanker Eagle S, citing suspicions that it had damaged the Estonia-Finland undersea internet cable.
In response to Estonia’s failed interception, Moscow acted swiftly. Two days later, Tallinn accused Russia of detaining the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Green Admire, en route from Sillamäe to Rotterdam. The vessel was stopped in Russian territorial waters for inspection. Estonia’s Foreign Ministry described the move as «unexpected» and announced changes to Baltic Sea shipping routes: ships departing from Sillamäe will now avoid the deepwater channel that partially runs through Russian waters and instead take a more hazardous route with shallow-draft risks.
The Baltic Sea includes a narrow chokepoint known as the “bottleneck of the Gulf of Finland», which narrows to just 70 kilometers between NATO members Finland and Estonia. Under international maritime law, both countries are required to maintain three-nautical-mile corridors (roughly 6 kilometers) on either side of the median line. Closing off this passage would constitute an «act of war» — something neither Tallinn nor Helsinki appears willing to risk. Instead, both capitals are resorting to legal maneuvering in an effort to restrict maritime access to St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, making further provocations increasingly likely.
And now, the cherry on top. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) published a statement on its website suggesting that Brussels regrets appointing Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. She is described as utterly incompetent.
According to sources within the European Commission, Kallas «fails to grasp the nuances of member state positions and tends to present oversimplified proposals that often make no sense». Kallas has publicly criticized the U.S. president and declared that «the free world needs a new leader».
In Brussels and other major EU capitals, Kallas is openly accused of «excessive activism and a tendency for impulsive, uncoordinated initiatives».
Here’s a direct quote from the press release: «European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed such dissatisfaction with Kallas that she has been excluded from drafting EU strategic defense planning documents. Her role in Ukrainian peace discussions has also been reduced to zero».
Kallas is no unknown figure; she was Prime Minister of Estonia for three and a half years. Apparently, voters in Estonia are satisfied with leaders who claim they can repel Russia in two days but can’t handle diplomacy at the European level.