Trump’s second 100 days: Turning point or total breakdown
Even a brief look at just one week of headlines reacting to Donald Trump’s every move paints a vivid picture. The returning president appears to be playing a dual role: a bold general charging ahead on a white horse, and at the same time a commander holed up in an ivory tower, fending off attacks from all directions.
On the evening of Sunday, May 18, the House Budget Committee revived President Trump’s stalled proposal to slash taxes and federal spending. Though modest, it marked a symbolic victory for the White House — especially after a group of fiscally conservative Republicans had earlier joined forces with Democrats to block Trump’s strategy for curbing the spiraling national debt, which now swells by an estimated $3.8 billion per day. This kind of intra-party defection, where GOP lawmakers side with the opposition, is no longer a rarity — it’s becoming the new normal.
Meanwhile, federal employees at the U.S. statistical agency are raising alarms over Trump’s push to implement an executive order signed on Inauguration Day. The directive seeks to reclassify approximately 50,000 civil servants as «policy/career», which would allow for dismissal based on «poor performance or misconduct». Understandably, federal number-crunchers fear for their jobs, especially if the statistics they produce don’t align with the president’s narrative.
As Mark Twain once quipped, «There are lies, damned lies, and statistics». If the facts don’t align with Trump’s narrative, it’s the facts — or rather, those who report them — that are in trouble.
It’s not just civil servants who are on edge. Major businesses are bracing themselves as well. Walmart, the retail giant that once stocked 90% of its shelves with Chinese goods, announced that it would raise prices in response to Trump’s new tariffs. The White House’s reaction was immediate and harsh.
Soon after, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon reassured Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen over the phone that the company would «absorb some of the tariffs» — meaning it would accept lower profits. If that’s not centralized command over the private sector, then what is? The president issues a directive, and a major corporation salutes obediently. (A not-so-subtle nod to the late Yegor Gaidar, perhaps.)
Starting May 18, liberal media outlets began sounding the alarm over another Trump-related scandal. According to reports, Qatar had offered President Trump an older $400 million Boeing jet to use as Air Force One. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut called it a clear ethical breach, suggesting corruption — or, at the very least, a serious conflict of interest.
Trump’s trade wars have affected not only the tech and information sectors, but also his biggest campaign donors in the energy sector. Since Trump took office, oil prices have dropped by 20%, making many energy projects financially unsustainable. In early May, the number of operational oil and gas rigs fell to 578, down from 586 in April. The trend is clear.
According to American journalist Michael Bohm, the onset of Trump’s tariff wars made it clear to many Americans — including supporters of the newly returned president — that «the foundations of Trumpism are built on rather dubious ideas».
According to Bohm, Trump’s crusade against globalism is doomed to fizzle out. The reason is straightforward: Under the current global order, a vast number of corporations and individuals have amassed tremendous wealth. Naturally, they will not allow the dismantling of a well-functioning enrichment machine that has been running smoothly for over 30 years.
Both big and small businesses have suffered in the wake of Trump’s tariff blitz. Wall Street lost an estimated $2.5 trillion. Financial heavyweights such as Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, and Ken Griffin have warned of significant economic consequences. Lawmakers from nearly every state have sent desperate messages to the White House: «Our small businesses are dying».
Less critical to Trump’s political survival and the continuation of his reformist mission by a successor in 2029 are his setbacks in reshaping the global order to preserve America’s military, political, and financial dominance. These setbacks are less critical only because the average American is more concerned with the price of gas, making mortgage payments, and whether eggs are available at the supermarket. However, growing chaos in international affairs will inevitably reverberate through the U.S. economy and the mood of the political establishment in our tightly globalized world.
«Trump is now considered the West’s public enemy number one», says Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior fellow at the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies. «He’s destroying everything that held the transatlantic alliance together for 80 years — NATO and maybe even the EU, which was always meant to complement the U.S.»
Michael Bohm echoes this sentiment: «Trump doesn’t realize that America’s strength lies in its allies. By isolating them, he’s setting the stage for disaster. This breakdown in U.S.-allied relations is one of the key failures of Trumpism».
However, the categorical claim that «Trump doesn’t understand» is inaccurate. It is more likely that Trump is being pushed into a corner by a flood of negative developments and the steady decline of American power, combined with a growing sense of urgency as «dark forces» close in. This is forcing him to act like an extremist who is willing to take reckless risks without a safety net.
The impending collapse of Trumpism lies in the businessman-showman-president’s personality and leadership style, among other things. Jonathan R. Goodman, a sociologist and author of the book Invisible Rivals, wrote in the British, left-leaning newspaper The Guardian that, throughout human evolution — long before the rise of civilized societies — leadership roles were almost always occupied by «alpha males». Over time, however, checks and balances emerged to curb the dominance of authoritarian figures, no matter what tactics they employed.
«This is exactly how strongmen like Donald Trump operate», Goodman asserts. «They use deception and manipulation to inspire absolute confidence in their abilities, then exploit that trust to climb to power — often betraying the very people who supported them, as Trump has done repeatedly».
The mounting series of small failures under America’s 47th president may soon lead to deep disappointment across broad segments of an already divided U.S. society, including voters who remained loyal to Trump until recently. As is often the case, quantity turns into quality. This shift would play right into the hands of the Deep State. Whether openly or covertly, Trump’s adversaries are embracing the increasingly popular «death by a thousand cuts» strategy — encouraging small but steady defeats that bleed political capital.
In a remarkably short time, Trump has managed to alienate the «government class» — the administrative backbone of the country, including intelligence and Pentagon officials — without whom the machinery of the state simply doesn’t run. Add to that the financiers of Wall Street, who worship no god but the dollar, as well as oil and gas executives, wholesalers, and retailers.
If — and more likely, when — contradictions and systemic flaws in Trump’s economic policy begin to manifest in rising prices, supply chain disruptions (such as shortages of imported microchips or even eggs), and the bankruptcy of companies that bet heavily on the now-fading «shale boom», then the dream of the promised paradise behind the slogan «Make America Great Again» will quickly vanish.
As Trump enters his second 100 days in the White House, the political weather forecast offers little optimism for the self-styled blitz reformer. What lies ahead are wild temperature swings in public opinion, dense clouds of uncertainty hovering over both everyday citizens and corporate giants, and sporadic geopolitical “climate anomalies” in regions declared by Washington to be of vital U.S. interest.
Then again, history has always been kinder to prophets of doom. If their bleak predictions come true, it proves their foresight. If things turn out better, no one holds it against them. Trump, in theory, still has a fighter’s chance — a bruised but battle-ready alpha male, a political brawler with three fists. For now, at least, those chances are still alive.