Last week, Kazakhstan hosted the second “China-Central Asia” summit
The event was attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and leaders from the five Central Asian states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The negotiations resulted in the signing of 24 intergovernmental and interdepartmental documents covering cooperation in energy, aerospace, digitalization, customs regulation, and agriculture. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, trade turnover between the countries increased by 35% over two years, with growing cooperation in industry, investment, green resource use, and scientific and technological innovation.
The main outcome of the summit was the “Treaty on Permanent Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between the People’s Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” described by observers as a “Treaty of Eternal Friendship.” Fundamental principles of the treaty include mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, and equality in partnership. The parties reaffirmed their commitment to peaceful dispute resolution, explicitly renouncing the use of force or threats of force. The treaty also commits the signatories not to join any alliances directed against each other or support actions hostile to another party.
The first China-Central Asia summit was held in Xi’an, China, in May 2023. Participants signed a joint declaration agreeing to hold summits every two years, with the recent event demonstrating deepening ties within this framework. Sun Weidong, Secretary General of the China-Central Asia association, noted that trade between China and Central Asian countries approached $100 billion in 2024. “Cooperation in production, investment, green resource use, and scientific and technological innovation is advancing comprehensively», Sun said at the forum’s conclusion.
Sun highlighted increased infrastructure projects, including the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, advancements on plans for a third cross-border railway between China and Kazakhstan, and upgrades on the second segment of the China-Tajikistan highway. He also announced that China would provide Central Asian nations with grants totaling 1.5 billion yuan (over $208 million) in the current year to support social development projects and improve living standards. Additionally, China plans to allocate 3,000 education and training quotas to Central Asian countries over the next two years. The cooperation between China and Central Asia also covers tourism, humanitarian and cultural exchanges, sister-city relationships, and regional connections.
Kazakhstan holds a special position among Central Asian nations due to its active partnership with China and participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. This is logical, given their extensive shared border, absence of territorial disputes, and significant political harmony, further facilitated by Kazakhstan’s president being a professional sinologist.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s participation in the China-Central Asia summit coincided with his official state visit to Kazakhstan, where bilateral top-level discussions were held. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the high level of cooperation within international and regional organizations, including the UN, SCO, CICA, BRICS, and China-Central Asia. He stated that bilateral trade reached a record $44 billion in 2023, up 30% from 2022. During the visit, 24 interagency and intergovernmental documents were signed, spanning cooperation in energy, aerospace, digitalization, customs, agriculture, e-commerce, tourism, intellectual property, healthcare, media, science, and interregional ties.
In 2024, China became Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, overtaking Russia. Experts anticipate China will strengthen this advantage, attributing the shift to sanctions against Russia, China’s vast economy, and its advanced technological capabilities.
This raises the question: does this affect Russia’s interests, given its traditional influence in Central Asia?
Russia’s official stance, articulated during the first China-Central Asia summit in 2023, remains positive: “Russia supports the development of equitable and mutually beneficial cooperation among all members of the international community, particularly friendly nations, including China and the Central Asian states. We see strengthening ties between them as a factor promoting regional stability and economic growth in both the short and long term», stated Russia’s Foreign Ministry. «China’s approaches to cooperation with Central Asian states contrast significantly with the policies of the US and its allies, who primarily engage with the region to promote anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agendas».
In simpler terms, China’s involvement is viewed as a stabilizing factor and counterbalance to US and EU influence in the region. China’s economic expansion complements Russia’s military-strategic influence in Central Asia. Notably, after China, the EU is the second-largest economic partner for Central Asia, employing a similar cooperation format and regularly holding analogous summits.
It can be assumed that Moscow is prepared to accept growing Chinese influence as long as it does not interfere with obligations within the CSTO, EAEU, and CIS frameworks.
Regarding the growth in economic relations between China and Central Asian countries, the process seems natural and difficult to impede. Primarily, China is one of the world’s leading superpowers with significant economic scale and interests in expanding its global presence. Secondly, Russia’s economic challenges can only be addressed by accelerating its own development efforts.