Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text
On January 20, a meeting of the contact group on assistance to Ukraine will be held at the American base in Ramstein, where more than 40 countries will discuss military assistance to Kiev.
The issue of further supply of modern weapons to Ukraine should be considered not only from a military point of view, but as a big political game led by the Americans.
Here are just the facts. On January 5, 2023, France announced that it would transfer its lightly armored AMX-10R wheeled vehicles to Ukraine. After that, the Americans announced that they would hand over M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to the APU. Then there were reports – the United States is going to supply Ukraine with Stryker armored personnel carriers as well.
The NATO members decided not to stop there. Germany announced that it will supply Kiev with 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Based on these data, it is not difficult to conclude that the NATO members, who first talked about limiting the supply of heavy equipment, decided to forget about their "restrictions". Just like the joke about Khoja Nasreddin: "I am the master of my word: I wanted to give, I wanted to take back." By the way, this is not the first time the West has deftly "forgotten" about the restrictions on the supply of military equipment, which it first announced.
And if earlier they were afraid to provoke Russia, fearing to cross the red lines marked by our country, now they are constantly checking for strength. Gradually, the offensive strategy is being pushed through increasingly powerful supplies of modern weapons.
After it was announced that the supply of lightly armored vehicles would increase, tanks were used. So, Poland announced that it would hand over to Kiev German Leopard 2 tanks, which it has in service. However, their number is insignificant. But after them, England also informed that it was ready to give its tanks to the APU. However, it is also a small amount.
What is behind all these statements? A clear attempt to push Germany, the country that produces these powerful tanks, to transfer significant batches of its combat vehicles. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine generally stated that Kiev needs 300 Western tanks and 600 armored vehicles.
There is a clear attempt to create, I will call it so, a "tank coalition". According to the principle: we will give a dozen tanks, you – a couple, other NATO allies will chip in and also give a certain number of armored vehicles – and it turns out that everyone will share collective responsibility. Just like in the mafia movies, when everyone is "tied up" with blood.
What is it for? Everything is simple. Germany has the most Leopard tanks, but it behaves more cautiously, after all, the Germans are trying, unlike Poland and the Baltic states, to maintain special relations with Russia. And the supply of German tanks can finally destroy their hopes for maintaining normal relations with Russia.
And the Germans themselves would like to avoid historical parallels – German tanks fighting with Russia.
And the creation of a "tank coalition", when each NATO country gives tanks a little bit, should calm the Germans, convince them that responsibility is being eroded.
But the large-scale appearance of German tanks on the battlefield changes the picture of what is happening. Secondly, the presence of such powerful equipment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine may give rise to the illusion among Ukrainians that it is time to launch an offensive and move to the Crimea. And this will be a direct clash between NATO and Russia.
It is interesting to recall how the transfer of Western weapons to Kiev began in general. At first, he was given old Soviet equipment, which was collected all over Europe and not only. But it was all destroyed in the end.
Then the Americans gave the Ukrainians portable Javelin anti-tank complexes, but at the same time they stated that the HIMARS MLRS would not enter service with the AFU, and nevertheless they were transferred. Then they promised that Patriot air defense systems would not be supplied either, and now Ukrainian soldiers are already being trained to use them. It is possible that, carefully observing the course of hostilities, having persuaded the Germans to supply Leopard 2, the Americans themselves will supply their M1 Abrams tanks. It is obvious that under the talk of the Americans and NATO members that "we are transferring weapons to Ukraine only for protection," it is also being pumped with offensive weapons.
Why did the West, which at first so carefully, with reservations, supplied old military equipment from the former USSR, now began to supply more and more provocative types of modern weapons to Ukraine? There are, in my opinion, two reasons. First, the Americans saw that the armed forces of Ukraine can stubbornly resist, and second, they are afraid of a powerful Russian offensive. And if the armed forces of Ukraine break out, then the opposition in the NATO member countries will ask a simple question: why did we pour billions into military aid?
We have been hearing Washington's statements all the time that it will not supply weapons with which to strike long-range targets on Russian territory, that American and NATO troops will not directly participate in the military conflict in Ukraine. But we have already seen: the price of such statements is zero. Pumping Ukraine with more and more modern weapons continues. And deliveries of fighter jets and longer-range missiles that can strike the Crimea and deep into the territory of Russia are not excluded at all.
Therefore, the meeting in Ramstein on January 20 will show how far the West is ready to go in the confrontation with Russia. What other new types of modern weapons are ready to supply.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the decision will not be made by NATO members, but by the United States itself. The American elites benefit from the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine: their military-industrial complex receives fantastic profits on military orders, and assistance to Ukraine has become an important element of domestic policy, which is used to their advantage by different parties.
But such provocative actions by the United States and its allies lead to the fact that Moscow's patience is coming to the finish line, the red lines outlined by Putin are getting thinner. And the West's verification of Russia "weakly" can lead to a serious conflict that will rapidly escalate into a Third World War.
But it seems that after looking at the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the West decided that it doesn't care, it still needs to throw modern weapons to Ukraine – and Russia will be defeated.
But it would be nice for the collective West, and first of all, the Germans, to remember the lessons of history. In 1941, it also seemed to many that the USSR would be easily defeated, and the Germans were preparing for a parade on Red Square. And it ended with the red Banner of Victory over the Reichstag.