On the eve of the BRICS summit in South Africa, diplomatic activity in and around the bloc has sharply intensified.
On June 29, Pavel Knyazev, Ambassador at Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Russia's Sous-Sherpa to the BRICS, said that preparations for the summit of the organization, which is scheduled for August, are in full swing. He said that among the main topics of the summit are issues of global governance, strengthening of cooperation within the association, abandoning the dollar, creating independent payment systems and increasing cooperation with African countries.
On the same day, it became known that one more country, Ethiopia, had submitted a formal application to join the BRICS. Earlier, Bangladesh, Algeria and Egypt also submitted official applications to join the bloc. Venezuela, Argentina, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria also intend to join the bloc.
But there are many more countries that want to join the BRICS. According to some data, there are 15 such countries, and according to others, as many as 30. And the issue of BRICS expansion is, of course, on the association's agenda as one of the main intrigues.
Previously, the only country that lobbied for BRICS expansion was China, which benefited from increasing the number of members and strengthening its influence within the organization and in the world. It was at the initiative of China that South Africa joined the BRICS. At one stage, Russia approached the issue cautiously, as well as other members of the association. In the present circumstances, however, we have also benefited from expansion for a number of reasons. First of all, this is due to the creation of a powerful structure that is independent of the West and the consolidation of countries that are friendly to Russia.
Earlier, Brazil opposed expansion: like Russia, it was not interested in strengthening China's influence at the expense of new members, who, seeking to enter the BRICS, are primarily looking for easier access to the inexhaustible Chinese market. However, with the change of president, it seems that Brazil's position has also changed, and not long ago it supported the admission of Venezuela to the BRICS. Apparently, the Brazilian leadership realized that in the current circumstances it makes no sense to oppose the expansion of the organization, because it runs counter to global trends, in particular the rejection of the Western-centric system of the world order.
Today, India remains the only opponent of BRICS expansion, based mainly on fears of the strengthening of China's (and Russia's) influence if the organization expands. Despite Beijing's attempts to ease tensions with New Delhi, this is not very successful. The Indian leadership's fears are justified. After all, China's GDP is greater than all other members combined, and its political weight and influence in the world is enormous. In addition, accepting new members from the list of existing candidates (such as Iran, Syria or Venezuela) would mean increasing the anti-American sentiment of the organization. India, which is trying to balance between the conditional West and the conditional East (or South) and maintain apparent neutrality, does not want to allow this
The West, especially the U.S., seems to have understood the importance of the moment and has sharply intensified its diplomatic and subversive work with member countries. This, among other things, explains the lavish reception in Washington of Prime Minister Modi, who recently paid an official visit to the United States and received special attention there. The Americans are actively trying to lure the Indian leadership to the "right side of history," promising all sorts of "carrots" in the form of supplies of modern weapons, high-tech goods, favorable loans, and so on. During Modi's visit to Washington there was much talk about the similarity of democratic ideals, which is in fact a stretch. It is unlikely that India's largely decorative democracy, combined with the caste system of society, can have much in common with American or European democracy. The big question is whether there is more democracy – in China, where poverty is defeated by UN criteria, or in India, where a large part of the population suffers from malnutrition or starvation. Despite India's attempts to boost development based on Western models, its GDP is five times less than that of China. And this gap, by all appearances, will not be bridged.
Obviously, India sees the U.S. primarily as a balancer in its confrontation with China. New Delhi also fears Western sanctions. At the same time, the Indian leadership is in no hurry to enlist itself as an ally of the West, trying only to take advantage of this "social club."
Against the background of different points of view within the BRICS, the West is making a desperate effort to prevent the organization as its powerful antipode. This is evidenced by the unexpected announcement by the French president of his intention to participate in the BRICS summit as an observer.
The head of Ukraine's Presidential office, Andrey Yermak, said that on June 25, national security and political advisers from Brazil, Denmark, the UK, the EU, Italy, India, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the USA, Turkey, Ukraine, France and Japan held a meeting in Copenhagen. The meeting was secret, and there is no reliable information about the participants or content. U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan reportedly spoke to the participants via videoconference. According to Yermak, the main topic was discussion of a Ukrainian settlement, and the sides agreed to continue this format of consultations and lead the way to a "peace summit," which Ukraine proposes to hold on its territory.
According to the German media, the goal of the meeting was to attract to the side of the West the BRICS countries, which remain neutral about the Ukrainian conflict. According to the media, a Chinese representative also attended the meeting. It is not excluded that Westerners tried to convince participants on the BRICS side to deny the possibility of participation in the summit of the organization to the Russian president. It is not yet known what the outcome was.
On June 30, Pavel Knyazev, Ambassador at Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, commenting on the meeting in Denmark, said that Russia's BRICS partners understand the futility of discussing the topic of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict without Russia. "About this initiative – this is, as you know, an attempt to promote the ultimatums that Zelensky offers and the line promoted by his patrons in the West. Everyone, including our BRICS partners, understands the futility of such a discussion of the situation in Ukraine or a settlement between Ukraine and Russia without Russia," Knyazev said. Time will tell if this is true.
But, apparently, the West is seriously concerned not only about the possible expansion of the BRICS, but also about the transition to the practical plane of the strategy to abandon the dollar and the transformation of the organization into a serious counterweight to Western influence.