Not only the Bundeswehr, but also the German intelligence services were unprepared for modern challenges.
The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), as reported by the weekly Der Spiegel, is conducting an internal review on the fact of a serious blunder, due to the knights of cloak and dagger, who completely missed the recent rebellion of PMC Wagner. They did not receive any operational information about its preparation, and the intelligence services of other Western countries (primarily the U.S.), which knew about the upcoming putsch, did not share with them the available information.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this on June 28 on ARD channel, drawing attention to poor coordination with other "friendly" intelligence agencies.
However, later in the investigation of the TV and radio companies NDR and WDR, part of the ARD media group, the information appeared that the German intelligence service allegedly suspected of the possibility of Prigozhin's mutiny about a week before its beginning, but failed to check this data with partners, so it did not warn the Federal Chancellor's office in time. And another thing: the BND technical service seems to have managed to intercept telephone conversations between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who mediated the crisis with the knowledge of Moscow, and the founder of the PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin.
At the same time, it is not clear who the technicians were "following." Most likely – not Prigozhin. If it was him on the wiretap, then the suspicions would undoubtedly have been formalized beforehand in some kind of report under the appropriate stamp.
They just missed it!
Even if the results of the "investigations" are true and not a blatant excuse to preserve the high image of the BND, all this information, as the operatives say, is useless. In other words, the information obtained by "heroic labor" merely completed the scene and did not contribute in any way to Berlin's ability to take any preemptive action if the conflict were to take a negative course.
"The fact of unawareness on an important issue again paints a bad picture of the BND's ties with other major intelligence services," said Uli Grötsch, the ruling SPD's intelligence expert. He predicted that the parliamentary control committee would have to ask uncomfortable questions of intelligence officials at its next meeting. And listen to their excuses.
It is about the Parliamentary Oversight Panel (PKGr), a committee of the Bundestag that oversees the BND, the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV).
"BND's information about Russia's internal affairs was clearly scant. <...> There is no other explanation for the fact that we parliamentarians were not given any information about the upcoming coup by Prigozhin and the Wagner Group," said Ulrich Lechte, a foreign policy expert in the FDP faction (another party in the "traffic light" coalition).
The fact that "the situation is definitely disappointing" was stated by the professional – former head of the BND Gerhard Schindler. In his view, given the many layers of control, approval procedures, vetting requirements and lack of authority, "it should not be a surprise if the foreign intelligence service mutates into a federal center for geopolitical education."
Germany, which until recently felt cozy and protected under the umbrella of the United States and NATO, is now reaping the bitter fruits of its inactivity: the combat capability of the Bundeswehr, for example, is recognized as unsatisfactory, requiring an urgent injection of billions of euros for rearmament and training of soldiers to fight in modern conditions.
And now there are problems for the foreign intelligence service, which has also not been spoiled with decent funding.
On July 5, the German government approved the draft state budget for 2024. Expenditures will amount to €445.7 billion, which is more than €30 billion less than in the current year. At the same time, the national debt may grow by €16.6 billion. It is envisaged to reduce almost all areas, except for the military. Against the backdrop of the events in Ukraine, the cabinet plans to reach the target level of defense spending at 2% of GDP, which the North Atlantic Alliance has long demanded of the Germans (but so far unsuccessfully).
"It is necessary that we fulfill the task and do what is necessary for the security of our country, to equip the Bundeswehr and to strengthen NATO. And we will do that," Scholz said.
At the expense of what? In particular, significant cuts are expected for the security agencies. The Federal Criminal Authority (BKA) will receive only €240 million, instead of the previously planned €330 million. In addition, the Federal Police, as well as the counterintelligence service, will also receive cuts.
To give you an example: the assumed austerity measures at the BKA (taking into account staff increases and inflation) mean that every euro planned for 2023 per employee will only correspond to 53 euro cents the following year.
It turns out that Germany's entire power bloc is going through bad times, and frankly, it is cracking at the seams. Its revival must be approached comprehensively. Otherwise, it will once again be a "mess": the tail will come out and the head will get stuck.