In recent times the world has witnessed significant geopolitical events: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States and France, the next BRICS Summit will be held in August, and the U.S. elections, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the world, are also approaching.
The GEOFOR editorial board asked Paul Craig Roberts, Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy (USA), a PhD in Economics and US Undersecretary of Treasury in the Reagan administration, to share his views on what to expect from the upcoming events.
GEOFOR: I would like to start with international issues. Not so long ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made several foreign visits at once – to the United States and France. Is Delhi's role in the big geopolitical game growing? In your opinion, what place will it occupy in the new world?
Paul Craig Roberts: It is too early to forecast India's alignment. India belongs in the Russian/Chinese bloc as that is India's geographical location. However, political decisions can be purchased, and Washington would find it very advantageous to have a base with India in the middle of the Silk Road. At the present time I would say India's decision rests on two factors: whether the US or Russia/China are the most successful in the courtship of India, and India's assessment of the the economic and military power of Russia/China relative to the US, The Kremlin's inability or unwillingness to achieve victory over Ukraine, and the firmness of China's response to US aggression will play a role in India's decision. India will align with the bloc she sees as the dominant one.
Source: Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters
GEOFOR: The formation of new alliances and expansion of old ones is actively taking place. The BRICS summit will be held in South Africa in August. In your opinion, what are the prospects for this association? Especially since the U.S. and its allies have intensified their work not only with New Delhi, but also with South Africa and Brazil, which can be seen as attempts to undermine this international structure.
Paul Craig Roberts: The BRICS organization offers its members sovereignty from Washington, but has been slow to get up and running. The slowness, like Russia's slowness in Ukraine, has made the organization look ineffectual. An independent payments and clearance system to SWIFT and the US dollar should have been in operation before now. The domination of neoliberal economics in Russia and China with emphasis on the need for an alternative reserve currency is partly responsible for the delay. What the organization needs is leadership that understands that a reserve currency is not needed and that members can settle their trade imbalances in their own currencies. The dollar's role as reserve currency is due to historical circumstances. At the conclusion of WWII, the US had the only intact economy with a credible currency. Today many currencies have a solid basis. China, for example, has its manufacturing capability, Russia has enormous energy and agricultural potential. Washington, of course, will do everything it can to purchase the leaderships of Brazil and South Africa just as Washington has purchased the ruling elites of Europe. European countries cannot lose their sovereignty to the EU, because they have already lost it to Washington.
Source: Alan Santos / PR
GEOFOR: What is the fate of the dollar in the foreseeable future? Will it remain the world currency? Or will it be popular only in countries and associations that are determined to cooperate closely with the United States?
Paul Craig Roberts: The question supposes that a world currency is needed. It is not. Countries can keep their reserves in the currencies of their trading partners, or in gold as China and Russia are doing. The dollar's role in international transactions is declining. Saudi Arabia has abandoned the petrodollar. Washington's weaponization of the reserve currency, sanctions, and theft of Russian central bank reserves have taught countries that holding dollar reserves and operating within the US system is foolish. The sanctions and trade war with China that Washington has begun has broken up globalism into blocks that are insulating themselves from each other. The end of globalism means the end of US primacy. As the US has offshored its industry to Asia, the US is import-dependent. As the demand for dollar reserves declines, foreign central banks will be financing less of America's trade and budget deficits, which will likely result in a decline in the exchange value of the dollar and a rise in domestic US prices, thus reducing the real living standards of Americans.
GEOFOR: Traditionally, we cannot avoid the American agenda. Recently in your material you said that Donald Trump and F. Kennedy Jr. have no prospects of becoming the next president of the United States. Could you tell our readers why and what are the prospects for the 2024 elections in this context?
Paul Craig Roberts: As the last two US national elections have demonstrated, election outcomes in the US are not determined by votes but by how votes are counted. In the US in the critical swing states, which are states that alternate between Republican and Democrat, votes are counted by Democrat political operatives in the large cities controlled by Democrats. The US Establishment is so strongly against Donald Trump that after the orchestrated Russiagate, two failed impeachments, orchestrated January 6 "insurrection," Trump now faces three trials on criminal charges, for which no evidence exists. The fact that a former president can be put on trial with fake charges reminds me of Stalin's trial of Nikolai Bukharin. After this extraordinary persecution of President Trump the ruling establishment cannot possibly permit him to become president.
Robert F. Kennedy has stated publicly what everyone who has studied the assassinations knows: the CIA and the military/security complex murdered his father and his uncle, President John F. Kennedy. There is no prospect that the CIA will permit Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to become president.
The Democrats having successfully stolen two national elections know that the media will not permit any investigation or even mention of election theft charges. Anyone who makes such a charge will be demonized, fired from his job, and investigated for spreading "misinformation" for the purpose of discrediting the United States. Evidence will not protect the person, who can face criminal charges. Republicans are only beginning to comprehend that the Democrats intend a one-party state.