Scenario Planning
We help you anticipate political and geopolitical developments, reducing uncertainty and enabling more effective business management. We develop scenarios, highlight early indicators, map out potential turning points, and set out clear next-day actions.
Boards of Directors / C-level Executives
To align management options with political scenarios in advance and avoid improvisation in moments of shock.
Strategy, Risk, and Government Relations Teams
To align external scenarios with plans, KPIs, and stakeholder communications, ensuring readiness for ‘day 0’ actions.
Law Firm and Consulting Partners
To embed management scenarios and indicators into client memoranda/positions and rapidly develop substantiated options.
Investment Committees and Capital Owners
To assess potential outcome ranges across countries/regions prior to commitments and establish clear thresholds for triggering decisions.
Methodology: How It Works
- Focus Question and Time Horizon: together we define the core management question and the time horizon, setting assumptions and “field boundaries.”
- Identify Key Drivers: political forces and critical uncertainties.
- Build Scenarios with defined logic, triggers/signals, potential “points of no return,” and initial implications for your case.
- Stress-Test Scenarios against alternative actor moves (management red teaming approach, stress testing) and refine the map of risks and opportunities.
What You Get:
- A scenario package with development logic, triggers, action “windows” and early indicators.
- A power map of actors and interests for the selected country, region, or hub.
- A stress-tested and significantly reinforced action plan as a result.
- Confidence that your strategy is prepared for the most severe and unpredictable scenarios.
Examples of Challenges We Address:
- Entering or re-entering a ‘third country’ market: assessing how political alignments and the influence of external actors could reshape the window of opportunity over the next 6-12 months.
- Regional crisis or escalation: determining early breakpoints and defining which signals should be treated as ‘sufficient’ to trigger a strategic response.
- Power Transition / Elections: coalition configurations and forecasts for the first 100 days.
- Partner country foreign policy shift: evaluating the probability of priority changes and their impact on agreements.
Elites and Power
Leadership reshuffles, coalition pacts, and shifts in budgetary priorities reveal elite dynamics.
International Relations
Bilateral signals, summit agendas, and mediation mandates indicate the direction of foreign policy.
Security and Conflicts
An increase in border incidents, mobilization measures, and changes in rules of force application reshape risks.
Society and Information Space
Stable protest windows, synchronized changes in official rhetoric, and new censorship measures point to mounting pressure.