Hindi will lead you to Kiev

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Vladimir Zelensky and Narendra Modi

Is it true that the Prime Minister of India is planning to visit Ukraine?

A number of media outlets, including Indian ones, citing diplomatic sources, reported on the planned visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine. «Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the war-torn country is expected to coincide with Ukraine’s National Day on August 24. It is believed that Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine amid renewed global efforts to find ways to resolve the conflict with Russia through negotiations», the Hindustan Times wrote.

The Indian business daily MINT even leaked information about Modi’s visit to Poland on August 21. It is reported that the Indian Prime Minister’s one-day visit to Warsaw will take place as part of his trip to Ukraine. This will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to a Central European country since Morarji Desai’s trip in 1979. Before Desai, former Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi visited the country.

The paper even gives some details: Modi will hold talks with President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk. They will discuss bilateral cooperation and the crisis in Ukraine.

So far, neither the Indian, Ukrainian nor Polish sides have officially confirmed anything, but all this seems quite plausible. Moreover, TASS joined the chorus of voices from the Indian media and reported, citing a source in the Indian parliament, that Narendra Modi could become a mediator between Russia and Ukraine to resolve their conflict. Allegedly, he could propose this initiative during the planned visit to Ukraine.

It is possible. Especially since the official invitation for Modi to visit Ukraine was sent before the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow and was reiterated when Vladimir Zelensky met with the Indian Prime Minister on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy on June 14.

According to Indian media, the visit was also discussed in a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on July 19.

It is also quite logical that the Polish angle comes into play here. Many world leaders on their way to Ukraine, including US President Joe Biden, have used Poland as a stopover. Flying directly into a conflict zone to unprepared airstrips is dangerous. It’s much safer to arrive in Kiev from Poland by train.

The dates mentioned are also quite reasonable — August 23 is Ukraine’s National Flag Day, and August 24 is Independence Day. It would make sense for the Kiev authorities, if the visit is indeed planned, to secure the presence of the leader of the world’s largest democracy on these dates. Aside from the propaganda effect of Modi’s visit, supposedly showing support for a war-torn country, there is also a purely practical benefit. Modi’s presence at the celebrations would provide additional security guarantees for the event: after all, the Russians, who have promised to avenge Kursk, are unlikely to target their closest partner, a member of the SCO and BRICS!

From Modi’s perspective, this is also an understandable move. He has always tried to appear as a neutral party and balance his relations with conflicting parties. Having talked about peace in Moscow, he is now heading to Kiev. Of course, it’s unlikely that he can claim the laurels of a mediator comparable to Xi Jinping and his special envoy, Ambassador Li Hui. Still, why not play the role of peacemaker? At least the media effect is guaranteed.

It should be recalled that President Zelensky reacted very nervously to Modi’s visit to Moscow on July 8–9. He called the visit almost a «devastating blow to peace efforts» and criticized the friendly atmosphere of the talks in the Russian capital. The West was also outraged that Modi chose Russia for his first bilateral visit in his third term, at the same time as the U.S. hosted Putin and NATO leaders for a summit aimed at bolstering support for Ukraine. But India’s foreign ministry said that all countries are free to choose their cooperation partners and that relations with Russia are traditional and based on mutual interests.

The practical response to Zelensky’s verbal exercises was as follows: India postponed a meeting of the joint working group with Ukraine on humanitarian and cultural cooperation, and the Ukrainian ambassador was summoned to the Indian foreign ministry for a reprimand.

But overall, Indo-Ukrainian relations remain fairly stable. Here’s the Indian Foreign Ministry’s report on the recent Modi-Zelensky meeting on the sidelines of the G-7: «The two leaders had a productive meeting during which they discussed ways to strengthen bilateral relations. They also exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine and the upcoming peace summit to be hosted by Switzerland. The Prime Minister reiterated India’s continued commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy and reaffirmed that India will continue to do all it can to support a peaceful settlement. The two leaders agreed to remain in contact». These are pretty positive words and tone. Why not continue to discuss these issues during an official visit?

So far, the parties have refrained from officially announcing the Indian guest’s trip. Kiev may want to present it as a surprise and a great success of independent diplomacy. They will try to portray the visit as a visible show of support for the Ukrainian regime, especially its actions in the Kursk region.

And although nothing is completely clear yet, the American administration is already on the scene. Deputy Spokesperson of the US State Department Vedant Patel, commenting on the possible visit of Modi to Ukraine, said that the US would support India’s involvement in resolving the conflict in Ukraine but believes that the terms of peace should be aligned with Kiev’s interests. «We have contacts with our Indian partners on many issues and would certainly welcome India’s involvement in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, particularly in terms of establishing a just and lasting peace that reflects what our Ukrainian partners are trying to do, which is to protect [their] territorial integrity and sovereignty», the U.S. State Department representative said.

Some commentators, including Russian ones, tend to criticize Modi’s intentions, arguing that he is not taking a clear position and is acting like a weather vane, which is not true. After all, India has good relations with Ukraine, including economic relations. And these must be maintained and developed. Moreover, peace efforts, wherever they come from, are not to be dismissed. The only problem is that their effectiveness is very limited, especially under the current circumstances. But it is always possible to report positively: we did everything we could.

However, the Indian Express writes that Modi does not plan to stay overnight in front-line Kiev, but only intends to drop by for a couple of hours to attend the celebration and talk to Zelensky. Meanwhile, according to the publication’s sources, «a decision on the level of the visit has not yet been made». This means that it may not be Modi who travels to Kiev, but, for example, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar or the Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.