Against the backdrop of a deteriorating domestic situation in the United States, new criminal charges against Donald Trump, and the approach of the 2024 presidential election campaign, the GEOFOR editorial board asked Paul Craig Roberts, Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy (USA), a PhD in Economics and US Undersecretary of Treasury in the Reagan Administration, to share his views on the future of America.
GEOFOR: Donald Trump is facing new charges and, this time, he is accused of holding classified documents. How dangerous is the new criminal case for Trump?
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: On the basis of the facts, the case is not dangerous, because it is a fabrication. US presidents have the right to declassify documents simply by saying that they are declassified. All former US presidents have such documents. Otherwise they would not be able to write their memoirs, because so much is needlessly classified.
This prosecution, following Russiagate (now disproved by the Special Counsel), two attempted impeachments that failed in the Senate, January 6 insurrection (a hoax organized by the FBI), and the New York State prosecution for allegedly reporting extortion money to a porn star (there is no truth to the allegation) as a legal expense instead of a campaign contribution, has convinced Trump's supporters, who are a majority of voters, that these attempts against Trump are illegitimate. Trump's support among voters is now so high, helped by the Democrat's weaponization of law, that Biden has zero chance of winning the presidential election if Trump is the Republican candidate. As more evidence has been revealed that Trump's reelection was definitely stolen from him by the Democrat-controlled election procedures in a few large cities in a few "swing states," which are states that sometime vote Republican, sometimes Democrat, Trump's majority has grown larger.
The danger for Trump is the same danger that Nikolai Bukharin and the original Bolsheviks faced from Stalin. Stalin controlled the prosecutorial process. The Democrats in New York control the State legal system and can bring as many false charges as they please. They will have no problem selecting a jury that will convict. It is unclear whether the Democrats intend to convict or just to prevent Trump from running.
Similarly, with the Executive Branch in their hands, Democrats control the Federal prosecutorial process. They are able to accuse Trump of an offense which he cannot be guilty, while overlooking that Biden has possession of classified documents dating from his Vice President days (vice presidents do not have power to declassify documents) and Hillary Clinton had classified documents on her personal computer while she was Secretary of State, a violation of law. So Americans can see that two Democrats who are actually guilty of violating law are not prosecuted, while President Trump who has the power to declassify is prosecuted.
It is important to understand the real reason for the seven year old assault on Trump. Listen to Trump's inaugural speech. He declared war on the American Establishment, an elite oligarchy. He made an instant enemy of the CIA and the security agencies by declaring his intent "to normalie relations with Russia." CIA Director John Brennan immediately declared Trump to be a "traitor to America." Why? Because to normalize relations with Russia was to take away the enemy that justifies the enormous budget and power of the military/security complex.
Trump also declared war on the Establishment in general, saying that he intended to take power away from them and give it back to the people where it belongs in a democracy. This was unacceptable to the oligarchy.
Keep in mind that most Republican politicians are also members of the Establishment. They represent the interest groups, such as the military/security complex, the pharmaceutical industry, agribusiness, energy, etc., who make the campaign contributions that elect Congress and the President. For example, the Republican leader in the Senate is a known enemy of Trump.
The result is that Trump has massive support from the voters, but not from the Republican Party. But it is not the people who have the power.
The media reports that Trump faces a 37 count indictment and 400 years in prison is propaganda aimed at convincing Americans that Trump is a major criminal. But the 37 counts are all rewordings of the same false charge of unauthorized possession of classified documents.
It is unclear whether a US president can be imprisoned. Federal law requires all former presidents to have the protection of two Secret Service agents for their lifetime. As it impossible to put Secret Service agents in prison, how can a former president be imprisoned?
What we are experiencing in the US is the rise of a Gestapo state in which the current president, Biden, is grossly interfering in a presidential election by prosecuting his rival who is without any doubt far ahead according to all polls despite the propaganda against him that is repeated endlessly by the presstitute media.
GEOFOR: The way Trump is running his campaign today is impressive, and in comparison to Biden and the other candidates, he looks at least decent. What do you think are Trump's realistic prospects in 2024?
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Unless Trump is somehow prevented from running--I do not rule out Trump's assassination by the CIA/FBI--and unless the Democrats are again able to steal the election, Trump will win by the largest majority in American history. Polls show that Biden is so far behind, that it is impossible for the Democrats to steal the election. As Trump is unacceptable to the military/security complex and the Ruling Establishment, he runs a high risk of assassination.
GEOFOR: The 2024 elections are inexorably approaching. In 2020, the presidential race took place against the background of mass protests by the Black Lives Matter movement, which was sponsored by the Democrats. In January 2021, Republican protesters stormed the Capitol. What should America and the world expect next year? How big is the risk of a social explosion in the United States on the eve of or after the elections?
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Black Lives Matter is, in my opinion, a Democrat/George Soros financed group of Brownshirts used for political purposes. It is propaganda that "Republican protesters stormed the Capitol." Trump and his supporters were a mile or more distant at the Washington Monument where Trump was speaking. As videos of the Capitol released by House Speaker McCarthy clearly show, the police opened the doors to the Capitol and escorted the few "protesters," many of whom were apparently federal agents, around inside the Capitol. The one act of violence was the black Capitol policeman who gratuitously for no reason shot a female military veteran, apparently in order to create a news propaganda basis for violence and insurrection.
As Democrats have shown that they have no integrity and no shame, and as they control federal law enforcement and face no accountability from the media, they can produce whatever violent events they think serve their purpose. Such an orchestrated event could be used to provoke violence from Trump supporters, but the Trump supporters are not organized for violence. They have no Antifa or Black Lives Matter Brownshirts. "White supremacists" are largely fictional. Oath Keepers are military veterans focused on defending the US Constitution, not on committing violence. There are no Republican groups looting and burning business centers of US cities.
It is unclear whether an orchestrated false conviction of Trump or another stolen election would result in a real uprising from the American majority. As Trump's supporters see him as the last chance for America, they might simply conclude that the people are helpless in the face of the tyranny and their own demonization that is rising in America and walk away resigned to the rising Gestapo States of America.
GEOFOR: As always, we cannot but ask a question about the economy. Fitch analysts stated in their recent forecast that the U.S. economy will continue to slow down. The domestic political risks are also taking their toll... How would you comment on such assessments and what is your prognosis?
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: US economic statistics are so manipulated that it is difficult to know what the situation is. The central bank is trying to correct a decade of easy money with a restrictive policy that is reducing the prices of existing assets, endangering banks and commercial real estate, and adding to the debt burdens of consumers. Additionally the US dollar as a result of sanctions and theft of Russia's central bank reserves is experiencing a diminished role as world reserve currency. This diminished role jeopardizes the foreign financing of US trade and budget deficits. As long as other countries settled their trade differences in US dollars and the Saudis billed in dollars for their oil, foreign central banks had incentives to keep their reserves in the form of US Treasuries, thus financing US trade and budget deficits. The move away from the dollar means that the foreign demand for dollars is falling, but the supply continues to increase as a result of US trade and budget deficits. The implication is a decrease in the exchange value of the dollar. As the US has offshored its manufacturing and is import-dependent, a fall in the dollar's value means a sharp rise in US inflation and a sharp fall in US living standards. In other words, the prospects for the American economy are far worse than a mere recession.
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy, US economist and ex-Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, a member of the Cold War Committee on the Present Danger.