Diego Azubel / Pool / Reuter
A series of U.S.-China contacts shows that both countries are looking for solutions to the tension.
As the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported on July 12, "according to agreements between China and the United States, the U.S. President's Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry will visit China from July 16 to 19." The political weight of this U.S. official and former U.S. vice president allows him to discuss issues far beyond the climate agenda. Kerry has met with his Chinese counterparts several times during periods of extreme strain in relations, including at the height of President Trump's trade war. That's what will happen this time, too. In addition to climate, Kerry will go over the entire set of bottlenecks that have accumulated between the two countries.
Ahead of this visit, Beijing hosted the 14th round of the China-U.S. Dialogue of Trade and Industry Leaders and Former Senior Officials. A large forum with about 300 "bigwigs" from the U.S. and China. The level of the event is such that in addition to other Chinese government officials, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng personally addressed the participants. That is, Xi Jinping's deputy. And here's what he talked about. About how the Sino-US relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. And also that China promotes "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, cooperation and win-win solutions" as the basic principles of this relationship.
"China will steadily promote reform and openness and welcomes enterprises from around the world, including the United States, to expand their presence in the Chinese market and contribute to ensuring the stability and smoothness of global production and supply chains, as well as promoting the growth of the global economy," Han Zheng also said.
What is the point? The Chinese leadership urges American business not to succumb to the political conjuncture and not to sacrifice the profits it derives from cooperation with China to the interests of the ruling groups. Representatives of the American side noted that the U.S. and China have close trade and economic ties, and the current difficulties and uncertainty cause them concern. According to them, the US business community is ready to continue to expand cooperation with China and play a positive role in promoting the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations. That is, it is not in their interests to pursue the policy of "containing China" that the U.S. administration is trying to implement.
This forum has become a logical continuation of a whole series of visits to Beijing by "captains" of American business, including Elon Musk and Bill Gates, the richest people on the planet, whose interests are directly tied to China, and who also tried to find in Beijing a way to "minimize political risks" and to understand what China is in the mood for and what they should do in a situation of instability.
Apparently, on the one hand, Beijing's diplomatic efforts in this direction have a positive effect. On the other hand, trends in the American leadership have recently changed. It has been decided to postpone open confrontation and divorce of the economies. This is evidenced by a series of previous visits by senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen.
Some try to present these trips as failures, during which the Chinese allegedly tried to humiliate the guests. Beijing, of course, did everything to show the United States that it is no longer possible to talk to China from a position of strength, imposing its own themes for dialog and issuing ultimatums. But what humiliation can we talk about if Blinken was received by Chinese President Xi Jinping? True, for this the Secretary of State had to use maximum diplomacy, working hard in Beijing for two days. He was received by both Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Wang Yi, head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CCP Central Committee and a member of the Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee. The details of the hours-long talks and agreements were not reported to the general public. However, since the Chinese president characterized the talks as successful, it can be concluded that some problems were resolved.
Yellen's visit lasted even longer – four days. The talks seemed to be thorough and substantive. She met with Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, with his deputy and at the same time with He Lifeng, head of the China-US Economic Council for Trade Cooperation, with Finance Minister Liu Kun, with Yi Gang, head of the People's Bank of China (analogous to Central Bank), with Pan Gongsheng, secretary of the party committee of the bank, and with former Vice Premier Liu He.
We also do not know what they discussed in detail. But the list itself is enough to draw a cautious conclusion: the idea of managed competition between the two largest economies was probably discussed in detail. And it is possible that agreements have been reached. The Chinese will not waste time on empty negotiations. This could mean compromises on both sides, including the easing of sanctions on both sides and the continuation of intensive trade turnover, which exceeds $700 billion a year. The divorce of the economies is postponed.
The series of China-U.S. high-level meetings continued on July 13 with talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN diplomatic meeting in Jakarta between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Wang Yi, head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee (CC) of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
"The meeting was part of an ongoing effort to keep channels of communication open to explain U.S. interests on a wide range of issues and manage competition responsibly, reducing the risk of miscommunication and miscalculation. This is what the world expects from the U.S. and from the PRC," said U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
He characterized the talks as "honest and constructive" and discussed both "areas of controversy and areas of potential cooperation." "The Secretary of State pointed out the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," the State Department spokesman added.
Wang Yi also had the same meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Jakarta. "Against the backdrop of tectonic changes in the world, we always follow the important consensus of our heads of state, firmly support each other in defending fundamental interests, follow the path of peaceful development, good-neighborliness and mutual benefit, and promote multipolar world and democratization of relations. We are satisfied with the development trend of our relations and deeply believe in their bright prospects," Wang Yi said at the meeting, as if to balance the dialog with the American.
What's in it for us? While political differences and the Taiwan issue persist, the sharpness of China-U.S. relations has obviously weakened. In the trade and economic sphere, there is some kind of relaxation. Let's see how the agreements reached will be realized, what the outcome of John Kerry's visit to Beijing will be, as well as what new bilateral talks will be held. Will there be another meeting between President Xi and President Biden, which is expected to take place on the margins of the APEC summit in November this year in the United States?
The situation in Russian-Chinese relations is the opposite of U.S.-Chinese relations: while the level of political relations is high, trade and economic ones are clearly lagging behind. This imbalance should be eliminated, but not at the expense of national interests and without falling into economic dependence on China. It should be understood that China acts pragmatically and is not ready to be charitable even towards its closest "friends". Mutual interest, or "win-win" as the Chinese formulate it, should be at the top of the agenda.
Despite the fact that Russia-China trade turnover grew by more than 40 percent in the first half of 2023, and the annual volume is likely to exceed $200 billion, objectively Russia, due to its limited economy, cannot yet serve as an alternative to the United States for China. Therefore, Russia's task is to correct this situation. This includes using the opportunities that the Chinese themselves offer. At the same time, it is necessary to rule out attempts to present Chinese goods as Russian by labeling them in Russian. What Russia needs from China is not, first and foremost, finished goods, but technology and cooperation in the creation of high-tech production facilities.